Russia could see a new wave of privatization, even as western sanctions linger, with foreign players gradually retreating. In this scenario, assets might be sold at unusually low prices, and buyers could include entities linked to the state or to public financial groups. The outcome would likely be a larger share of the economy remaining under state influence, a concern voiced by Anton Tabakh, the chief economist at the expert rating agency Rating Expert RA in Russia.
According to Tabakh, the international side of privatization strategies would be constrained by sanctions and the withdrawal of foreign strategists. In this environment, assets could change hands quickly and cheaply, creating a pool of buyers among state-aligned financial structures. He pointed to institutions such as VTB Bank as examples where state participation might find new owners under market-friendly terms, as the sale would be dominated by those with state or public sector ties rather than foreign strategic investors.
Earlier, Andrey Kostin, the chairman of the board at VTB Bank, wrote in a column for RBC about restarting the privatization process in Russia. Kostin argued that a fresh round of privatization could contribute to a new growth model for the Russian economy in the face of ongoing sanctions. He suggested that a deliberate move toward private ownership under transparent and competitive conditions could deliver long-term efficiency and resilience for the financial sector and the broader economy.
Kostin emphasized that transferring state assets to private hands, when done within clear rules and open competition, has historically demonstrated its effectiveness. He framed privatization as a tool to unlock value, attract private capital, and foster competition, which in turn can spur innovation, improve governance, and enhance service delivery across key sectors. The challenge remains ensuring that such transactions are transparent, well-regulated, and designed to safeguard systemic stability while encouraging responsible private investment.
For policymakers in North America and other parts of the world, the discussion highlights how sanctions and global risk perceptions can shape the trajectory of privatization. The balance between maintaining strategic control over critical financial infrastructure and inviting private capital is delicate. Market participants in Canada and the United States will be watching how Russia navigates this path, weighing potential gains in efficiency against the risks of concentration and state influence in strategic sectors.
Analysts note that the privatization debate is more nuanced than a simple shift from public to private ownership. It involves considering the quality of governance, the regulatory framework, and the capacity of the competitive process to attract credible bidders. If privatization proceeds with robust oversight, it could help reallocate capital toward productive activities, improve risk management, and support macroeconomic stabilization in the long run. The ultimate impact will hinge on the design of the sale, the rules governing it, and the ability of institutions to sustain market discipline amidst external pressures.