Brent crude moved past 78 dollars a barrel, marking the first time since December 2023 that prices have breached that level according to ICE trading data.
At 16:10 Moscow time, February-dated Brent futures hit 78.01 dollars, and by 16:15 the price was still nudging higher at 78.06 dollars, a 1.38 percent rise. In parallel, WTI traded on the CME at a premium above 73 dollars a barrel, reaching 73.22 dollars and climbing about 2 percent.
Analysts point to support from geopolitical risk, including attacks by Houthi forces on vessels in the Red Sea, which raises concerns about potential disruptions to oil supply. However, there is also caution from traders about the effectiveness of Russia’s planned December oil export reductions, which dampens expectations for a pronounced price rally.
Britain’s largest oil producer, BP, temporarily halted transit through the Red Sea in response to the Houthi strikes, with other carriers avoiding the Suez Canal to mitigate risk.
“The geopolitical risk premium driven by ongoing Red Sea hostilities has clearly contributed to the recent rebound in oil prices,” notes Tamas Varga, an analyst at the brokerage firm PVM. He also questions the breadth of Russia’s voluntary production cuts, describing them as a possible rebranding of weather-related shutdowns rather than a fundamental shift in supply.
In the United States, market watchers have discussed potential gaps in sanctions or other policy tools aimed at Russia’s oil exports, which continues to influence sentiment and price direction in North American markets.
For traders in Canada and the United States, the unfolding supply picture remains a key determinant of price moves in the near term. While headlines about conflict zones and sanctions shape the risk assessment, broader market dynamics, including refinery demand, seasonal patterns, and currency moves, also weigh on the path of Brent and WTI in the weeks ahead.