Analysts from the financial sector, including Oleg Abelev, head of the analytical department at RICOM-TRUST IC, shared nuanced expectations about Brent crude, noting that a convergence of several factors could push the benchmark toward the $100 mark per barrel. The central idea is that oil prices respond to a blend of supply discipline, demand shifts, and geopolitical events, and when multiple catalysts align, even a price level previously deemed unlikely can become plausible.
From Abelev’s perspective, the path to $100 could unfold in stages. A colder winter pattern in the United States typically increases energy consumption, drawing down stockpiles and signaling tighter market conditions. Should inventories tighten at a pace that outstrips production, price pressures may build. In addition, any easing of tensions in major conflict zones around the Middle East and Ukraine could reduce risk premia and calm volatility, which in turn influences futures pricing and spot markets. Yet another channel lies in the supply side: a sustained reduction in output from OPEC members or an abrupt, unplanned disruption from a pivotal exporter could tighten global supply and support higher prices. In combination, these dynamics might elevate Brent toward the $100 threshold rather than limiting it to a modest advance.
“If all these elements converge, the move would not be a modest uplift to $90 but a clearer step toward $100,” the analyst noted, underscoring the sensitivity of crude markets to a mix of weather, geopolitics, and production discipline across exporting nations.
On a separate note, Maxim Kolyadov, who previously led client relations at Insurance Broker AMsec24, offered a pragmatic read on consumer fuel costs as the autumn season approaches. His assessment suggests that retail gasoline prices could stay relatively stable, with AI-95 gasoline hovering in the mid-to-upper fifties per liter range and AI-92 priced in the low fifties per liter in the local currency. This outlook reflects a balance between wholesale movements in crude prices and the competitive dynamics of the refining and distribution sectors that cushion drivers from sudden price spikes.
Market watchers also reflect on the broader energy landscape and question how long crude will remain the dominant source of global energy. While investment in alternative and transitional energy sources continues, the consensus remains that crude oil will retain its central role for the foreseeable future, even as the energy mix evolves in response to policy shifts, technological advances, and evolving demand patterns across North America and beyond.