An in depth assessment by Alexey Gromov, who serves as Chief Energy Director at the Energy and Finance Institute, outlines how the oil market could unfold over the next two years. The real driving forces, he notes, are the health of the largest energy buyers and the arrival of new, influential producers on the world scene. This perspective comes from an interview conducted by an energy news agency and shared with DEA News.
The expert expects that the latter half of 2024 will bring a shift in supply in several key regions. In particular, Guyana and Brazil are pushing forward with offshore developments that could lift their export capacity by the 2025 to 2026 window. These projects are closely watched because they could alter regional supply balances and contribute to the global flow of crude.
Beyond that, Iran and Venezuela could rejoin the market if sanctions conditions ease. A return by these producers would add new dynamics to price formation and the overall supply picture, compounding the uncertainties that already exist in a rapidly changing global energy landscape.
Gromov also stresses that OPEC plus will continue to play a stabilizing role for the oil market. Yet forecasting price movements remains challenging amid ongoing structural shifts in the energy sector and shifts in demand patterns across major economies.
Looking at near term signals, October could bring a measurable decline in oil supply from certain producers, a development that could influence prices and market sentiment as the month progresses.
There is a broader question about the durability of the oil reserves as a long term energy source, a topic that often comes back in discussions about global energy security and transition strategies. The balance of supply and demand in the coming months will hinge on policy decisions, production decisions by key producers, and the pace of economic recovery in large consuming nations.