Bank of America’s research team adjusted their outlook for North Sea Brent crude, trimming the price projection to 80 dollars per barrel from 90 dollars. The revised forecast reflects a fresh assessment of the oil market, with the change highlighted in a Bloomberg interview that focused on the bank’s global commodities and derivatives outlook. The outlook now incorporates a softer demand trajectory that appears to be stabilizing, alongside evidence of higher supply from the United States and increased export activity from Iran. Another noted driver is a rapid improvement in the Venezuelan market, which could influence regional supply dynamics and pricing signals in the near term.
Despite these downward revisions, Bank of America’s overall view remains relatively optimistic when compared with some peers. Morgan Stanley is projecting Brent at 77 dollars, Citigroup at 75 dollars, and Goldman Sachs at 81 dollars per barrel, suggesting a spectrum of expectations across major institutions. The divergence among these forecasts underscores the volatility that characterizes energy markets today, shaped by geopolitical developments, policy decisions, and shifting demand patterns in key consuming regions.
Oil prices subsequently traded around the mid-70s, dipping below 76 dollars per barrel during Monday trading. The move lower followed Saudi Arabia’s decision to reduce the price of its Arab Light crude by one to two dollars per barrel for all buyers, a cut that rippled through pricing benchmarks. Data from the London ICE exchange showed Brent trading near 77.73 dollars per barrel at 16:52 Moscow time, illustrating how policy steps by major producers can rapidly influence sentiment and price levels across markets.
Early weakness in the oil complex is also impacting the ruble, introducing additional volatility into the currency landscape. The combination of softer demand signals, incremental supply responses from producer nations, and the broader macro backdrop creates a delicate balance for traders and policymakers as they gauge the direction of energy markets in the weeks ahead.