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on17.10.2025

Oil Exports, Domestic Supply, and Fuel Price Dynamics in A Changing Market

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Experts note that a potential reduction in Russia’s oil exports could lift domestic supply, yet a sharp jump in fuel demand is unlikely in the near term. This assessment comes from Tatiana Skryl, an associate professor in the Department of Economic Theory at the Russian University of Economics G.V. Plekhanova. She spoke about the possible effects of export policy on the domestic market and overall price stability.

Skryl explained that if Russia follows through on its pledge to curb oil exports, the domestic market might see greater supply. Such a shift has the potential to stabilize prices by reducing volatility and limiting surprises for consumers and businesses alike. In her view, this could ease some degree of unpredictability in the energy sector while preserving adequate incentives for production and investment within the country.

According to Skryl, fuel costs currently rise in tandem with the overall inflation rate. In practical terms, this means that the annual price level for gasoline and diesel can be forecast with reasonable confidence based on current inflationary trends and supply conditions. This gives market participants a clearer picture of what to expect over the coming months, even as other factors continue to influence prices.

She also highlighted the seasonal component of gasoline pricing. Seasonal demand increases typically occur in the spring due to activity in the agro-industrial sector, while a number of oil refineries implement planned maintenance during this period. When these dynamics align with broader market conditions, there is a higher likelihood of price upticks for fuel products as the market adjusts to shorter-term supply and demand shifts.

In another development, the January 24 edition of Kommersant reported that the cost of gasoline and diesel on the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange (SPIMEX) had fallen to some of the lowest levels seen in recent years. Analysts attributed this decline to expectations surrounding a potential European Union embargo on imports of Russian petroleum products, anticipated to be enforced in February. This situation illustrates how macro policy moves and regional regulatory actions can interact with domestic pricing, creating brief windows of price relief or renewed pressure depending on market expectations and actual supply responses. (Kommersant, January 24)

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