In a strategic move within Russia’s oil sector, the export tax on oil is slated to drop to zero starting January 1, 2024, a policy change announced by the Ministry of Finance. This step is the culmination of a broader maneuver designed to realign fiscal receipts with evolving production and export patterns.
The core of the plan began in 2019, when the existing customs duty was reduced by one sixth of its full value each year. This gradual reduction was paired with a corresponding rise in the mineral extraction tax, creating a balancing mechanism meant to ease the transition for the industry while preserving overall government revenue. By 2024, the intended result is a complete abolition of the export duty on oil. In parallel, compensation schemes are anticipated to support oil refineries as they adjust to world price benchmarks and potential market shifts.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the export tax level for oil stood at 24.7 dollars per barrel in December 2023, signaling a tangible marker in the policy timeline and illustrating how fiscal measures track market conditions over time.
Looking ahead to 2024, the policy extends to other export obligations. Taxes on exports of light and dark petroleum products, crude oils, commercial gasoline, naphtha, and coke are expected to be zeroed as part of the broader reform. The regime also features reductions in the taxes applied to liquefied petroleum gas and its pure components. Specifically, the tax on liquefied gas will fall from 4.7 dollars to 1.6 dollars, while the levy on its pure components will decline from 4.2 dollars to 1.4 dollars. These changes are designed to streamline export pricing for a wider range of energy products and to align fiscal incentives with the evolving global market environment.
Historical context behind these steps includes prior assessments by energy and economic agencies about how such fiscal adjustments could influence production, export volumes, and investment. The transition is framed as a long term adjustment rather than a sudden shift, with monitoring and potential interim measures to smooth the impact on the energy sector and related industries. In the broader policy discussion, the forecasted effect on demand for oil and gas from the Russian Federation has been a topic of consideration, reflecting concerns about long term energy demand trends and the role of regulatory policy in shaping capital allocation and industrial planning through mid-century.