North African States Amplify Purchases of Russian Diesel as EU Sanctions Bite
Recent reporting indicates that North African nations are becoming the most voracious buyers of Russian diesel and related petroleum products after Europe’s embargo took effect in early February 2023. Wall Street Magazine highlights how Moscow was forced to redirect its export flows when the European Union halted a large share of its oil shipments, a move that previously accounted for roughly 60 percent of Russia’s oil exports. In the face of these sanctions, Western observers worry that Moscow’s budget from hydrocarbons may not shrink as intended.
In January 2023 Morocco imported more than two million barrels of Russian diesel, a figure well above the 2021 annual total of around 600,000 barrels. February forecasts suggested at least an additional 1.2 million barrels. Algeria and Egypt also reported pronounced increases in imports from Russia during the same period.
Tunisia, which historically bought little Russian petroleum, has expanded purchases to include diesel, kerosene, gasoline, and naphtha. These products feed the country’s chemical industry, especially plastics production. January purchases reached 2.8 million barrels with expectations for about 3.1 million in February.
The rise in petroleum product imports by Morocco and Tunisia aligns with a surge in exports from these nations. The Journal notes the possibility that re-exports occur, where Russian fuel mixes with products from other origins for resale, a pattern sometimes referred to as the Latvian plan. The feasibility of curbing such trading schemes remains uncertain, says Andreas Economow of the Oxford Energy Research Institute. He questions how one should attribute origin if a cargo contains a majority share of Moroccan goods versus Russian components.
Kpler Senior Petroleum Analyst Victor Katona observed that North African nations lack sufficient refinery capacity to absorb these inflows on their own. He also acknowledged the likelihood that some Russian products could still reach European markets. He cautioned that there is no clear sign of increased Maghreb refinery capacity, a region encompassing Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco.
The WSJ clarifies that the North African shipments discussed occurred before February 5 when EU sanctions were fully implemented and re-export restrictions were not yet legally enforced. Yet these trends create headaches for European officials and undercut Western aims to deprive Moscow of revenue while Europe conducts its Ukraine operation with an eye toward alternatives to Russian supplies.
Morocco, which had not exported petroleum products previously, dispatched 280,000 barrels of diesel to the Canary Islands and 270,000 barrels to Turkey in January. While the precise origin of these cargos cannot always be confirmed, their timing aligns with a rise in purchases from Russia.
The Journal explains that North African ports currently serve as efficient transit hubs for Russian products. Proximity reduces delivery time compared with routes past through the Baltic Sea, helping Moscow avoid higher shipping costs. In addition, demand from China and India remains focused on Russian crude rather than refined products. The geographic proximity of Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria to Europe implies potential retail connections to European customers at relatively low cost.
Analysts cited by the publication temper their forecasts about how long re-exports via North Africa might continue. The February price cap on Russian oil products is expected to complicate movement globally, and experts argue that European policy choices will shape the flow of replacements to substitute Russian supply. Economow from Oxford notes that Western observers may not fixate on the origin of the petroleum so much as ensure that flows do not stall entirely. The goal remains ensuring market conditions do not derail Western strategies while Russia sustains its operations in Ukraine.
Two days after Bloomberg reported that the price ceiling increased Russian earnings, the Wall Street Journal cited a study conducted by a group of experts from the Institute of International Finance, Columbia University, and the University of California system. The study found that on December 5, the average monthly price for Russian crude rose to about $74 per barrel, roughly a quarter above the EU and G7 threshold of $60. The analysis also pointed to a so-called shadow fleet of at least 250 ships that Moscow reportedly prepared before the price cap, allowing some Russian oil to move beyond the cap through secondary channels. This adds to the debate over how strictly the cap will constrain global oil markets.