In the near term, analysts anticipate a gradual easing of prices for apartments in the primary market. This forecast was articulated in a discussion with Lenta.ru by Artem Savostitsky, a Candidate of Economic Sciences and Associate Professor of Economic Policy and Economic Measurements at the State University of Management. He outlined the current state of the market, highlighting a noticeable slowdown in the new construction sector and explaining that demand for newly built housing has cooled. The pace of buyer activity is not expected to pick up in the immediate future.
According to Savostitsky, the market could see some price reductions over the medium horizon. He pointed to a persistent gap between the pricing of new buildings and homes in the secondary market, noting that in some regions the price difference can reach as much as about 40 percent in favor of finished housing. He described this disparity as a major hurdle for new construction, stressing that even with mortgage rates around 10 percent, many buyers find it more economical to purchase on the secondary market. This pricing dynamic also feeds into the broader trend for the sector, suggesting both a downward pressure on new-build prices and a potential rise in activity within the secondary market where existing homes are more affordable and readily available.
Data from the real estate firm Etazhi indicate that the average cost of primary real estate has risen by roughly 117.5 thousand rubles per property, with the price per square meter hovering around 119.7 thousand rubles in 2022. The firm’s analyses also show a shift in buyer interest away from newly constructed apartments toward ready-made units and cottages. In the Russian market, this shift is interpreted as a cooling demand for new-builds and a corresponding increase in demand for turnkey housing options, a trend that aligns with Savostitsky’s assessment of the ongoing price gap and the sensitivity of buyers to financing costs. Market observers emphasize that the cost dynamics in the primary segment will continue to influence overall pricing trajectories and the distribution of demand across both new and existing housing stock. This nuanced interaction between price levels, mortgage affordability, and buyer preferences shapes a realistic outlook where secondary-market deals may become increasingly competitive, especially for investors and homeowners seeking immediate occupancy.