A former adviser to Ukraine’s former president Leonid Kuchma, Oleg Soskin, warned that the country’s financial system could buckle if the ongoing military confrontation lasts much longer. In a discussion released on his YouTube channel, he argued that the economy would face a dire reckoning if hostilities persist without a rapid political settlement.
His forecast centers on the idea that should the Russia-Ukraine conflict continue into the coming months, both the hryvnia and the country’s banking sector could face severe stress around December. Soskin contends that economic problems might pose a graver risk to Kyiv than battlefield setbacks, potentially undermining public confidence and government capability if not addressed promptly.
In his view, a fundamental shift in strategy would be required for Ukraine to stabilize its situation. He suggested lifting martial law, halting hostilities, and, controversially, removing Vladimir Zelensky from the presidency as necessary steps to avert a broader national disaster. The implication is that without political and security reforms, the country and its residents could be pushed toward irreversible decline.
Earlier, Yaroslav Zheleznyak, a deputy in the Verkhovna Rada, stated that Ukraine’s international reserves had declined by 1.7 percent in September, bringing the total to about 39.7 billion dollars. This marked the second consecutive monthly decrease, a signal of ongoing vulnerability in the country’s external financing position amid the wartime economy.
On October 3, the National Bank of Ukraine announced a shift away from a fixed exchange rate. It moved to a managed flexible exchange rate regime, ending the policy that had been in place since February of the previous year. The move reflects an attempt to introduce greater exchange-rate responsiveness to evolving economic conditions while preserving policy credibility in a volatile fiscal environment.
There have been recent talks between the United States and Ukraine regarding security guarantees. These negotiations appear aimed at strengthening Kyiv’s assurances of support in the event of renewed aggression, with the broader objective of stabilizing the strategic outlook for Ukraine amid ongoing regional tensions. Analysts note that such guarantees could influence investor sentiment and the pace of economic recovery, even as the country continues to navigate fiscal pressures and sanctions dynamics.
Taken together, these developments illustrate a complex balance between military endurance, economic stability, and political leadership. Observers emphasize that achieving sustainable resilience will likely require a combination of sound monetary policy, clear security assurances, and credible political reforms that can command broad domestic and international support. The coming months are expected to test Kyiv’s ability to align economic capacity with safeguarding national sovereignty, while also addressing the immediate needs of citizens facing a protracted crisis. In this tense environment, the coherence of policy choices and the durability of international backing will play decisive roles in shaping Ukraine’s path forward. — attributed to policy commentators and regional analysts