Military analyst Dmitry Kornev, the founder of MilitaryRussia, offered a cautious forecast about Russia’s import substitution trajectory, suggesting a multi-decade timeline for full domestic self-sufficiency. He spoke on radio, noting that the path will require sustained investment and a willingness to adapt, with the likelihood of leveraging a mix of domestic production and imports through indirect channels.
According to Kornev, Russia would rely on a combination of sources to fill gaps: purchases from China, procurement through third countries, and, at times, arrangements arranged via specialized channels. He compared this approach to historical patterns seen during the Cold War, when strategic goods were routed through various intermediaries to maintain supply and capacity. The expert added that some high-tech items would still depend on imported components, underscoring the gradual nature of any substitution effort.
He projected that, over the next decade and beyond, Russia could reach an 80-90 percent level of import substitution, although certain sophisticated technologies would require continued external inputs. The emphasis, he stated, should be on building a resilient domestic ecosystem that can sustain production under diverse geopolitical circumstances.
To gain actionable insights, Kornev highlighted the importance of examining the Russian military-industrial complex’s past and present practices. He pointed to established frameworks and successful program management as potential templates for expanding domestic capabilities while maintaining performance and reliability in critical sectors.
Earlier, it was noted that United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) has been positioned to advance Russia’s plan for substituting imports in aviation. The trajectory for programs like the Sukhoi Superjet and the MS-21 was reportedly aligned with the overall substitution objective, with timelines adjusted but progress maintained, reflecting a concerted effort to strengthen national aviation manufacturing capabilities.