Russia is among the G20 members where growth in gross domestic product is forecast to pick up in the current year, with a projected rise to about 2.2 percent. This projection comes from the latest trade and development report released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, often abbreviated as UNCTAD. The report highlights a broader trend of improvement across several major economies. In addition to Russia, countries such as Brazil, China, Japan, and Mexico are expected to show solid development, with growth rates edging higher despite some fluctuations seen among G20 members. The analysis points to a scenario where Russia outpaces some foreign economic departments with a 2.2 percent forecast for 2023 and a continued 2 percent projection for 2024, signaling an unusually robust pace relative to many peers.
Earlier this year, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development announced a strengthening of the domestic outlook. After considering a more favorable external environment, the forecast for Russia’s economy was revised upward from 1.2 percent to 2.8 percent for the year. The Central Bank of Russia provides a slightly different frame, expecting growth in the 1.5 to 2.5 percent range for 2023, followed by a more modest 0.5 to 1.5 percent in the next year. This divergence reflects the range of perspectives among major institutions about the pace and durability of the trajectory ahead.
By mid-summer, the indicators for the Russian economy were already indicating resilience and the capacity to absorb external shocks. While some external risks persist, the updated projections suggested that the domestic economy could maintain momentum even as global conditions remained mixed. The overall picture from the UNCTAD assessment, alongside national forecasts, points to a period of steadier expansion for Russia, supported by internal measures and a diversified approach to growth across sectors. The analysis emphasizes the importance of sustained reforms, a stable macroeconomic framework, and continued attention to external trade dynamics in shaping the path forward for the Russian economy. The report aligns with a broader narrative of gradual recovery in several major economies while signaling that Russia could maintain above-average growth relative to many peers in the near term, as cited by UNCTAD.