The banking sector is expected to see a downturn in net profit in 2024, with a projected drop of about 13 percent from the previous year, settling around 2.8 trillion rubles. This forecast comes from the recent materials compiled by Expert RA, a prominent rating agency. While the overall industry faces headwinds, the ten largest banks are anticipated to contribute a substantial portion of the total, with their combined net profit expected to hover around 2.1 trillion rubles within the same period.
Analysts note that the concentration of profitability among the top ten banks is likely to widen, driven by advantages such as access to cheaper funding and stronger technological capabilities that enhance efficiency and customer experience. In contrast, mid-sized banks may encounter external constraints linked to foreign economic activity, which can limit their growth potential and financial flexibility in a tightening environment.
The agency estimates that roughly 15 financial institutions could exit the market in 2024 due to strategic restructurings, voluntary exits, or license revocations. This potential market adjustment underscores ongoing consolidation and the evolving regulatory landscape that influences bank profitability and market survivability.
In anticipation of monetary policy adjustments, major Russian banks have begun to moderate interest rates on deposits and savings accounts. This move aligns with expectations that the central bank may ease its policy stance, a shift that could influence customer behavior, funding costs, and overall profitability in the near term.
Earlier developments have already shown regulatory evolution in the banking sector, including an initial instance of breach of loan advertising rules. Such incidents highlight the ongoing need for stricter compliance and clearer communication between lenders and borrowers as the market adapts to new regulatory realities. (Analysts, Expert RA)