Forecasts for the autumn season point to a continued rise in meat prices, with sausages and other processed meats expected to climb by roughly 5–10 percent, and some analysts even predicting higher gains. The outlook comes from two industry insiders who spoke to the Telegram channel Baza, offering practical perspectives from manufacturers involved in producing finished meat products.
From a senior executive at the Myasnitsky Ryad group, the most pressing hurdle facing Russian meat production is securing raw materials. While sanctions have created some friction, the supply of equipment and components remains achievable, and producers have managed to obtain the machinery they need. The most significant cost pressure stems from a sharp escalation in meat prices, which has surged by more than 30 percent in certain markets. This squeeze affects both wholesale and retail channels, and there are reports from July indicating that chicken prices reached historic highs.
Another executive from a different meat company suggested that a sudden, drastic price spike is unlikely. Producers typically operate under long-term agreements with retailers, which means any price adjustment must be carefully justified to partners. The prevailing expectation is for a steady 5–10 percent rise on average, rather than abrupt spikes that could unsettle the market and erode consumer confidence.
According to Rosstat, the average price for a kilogram of chicken in July stood at 196.93 rubles, marking a historic peak. Current data show chicken costs exceeding the previous high set in April 2022, when prices were 190.85 rubles per kilogram. The June average was 193.48 rubles per kilogram, reflecting a 6.8 percent month-over-month increase and signaling ongoing upward pressure on poultry prices as summer fades into autumn. This trajectory aligns with broader inflation trends that continue to influence food costs across large consumer categories.
A survey conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation found that 35 percent of Russians noticed higher meat prices in June, while roughly a third reported increases in milk and dairy products, and 29 percent observed price rises in fish and seafood. Analysts stress that inflation dynamics in Russia feed into consumer demand and the overall cost of living, shaping shopping choices across households. The latest official inflation commentary points to sustained upward pressure on consumer prices, driven in part by shifts in wholesale meat markets and the broader supply chain environment. Industry briefings and market chatter suggest that while one-off shocks will appear from time to time, the general path for meat products is unlikely to spike dramatically. Instead, prices are expected to adjust gradually over the coming months, maintaining a measured pace that avoids sudden, unsustainable jumps. [Citation: Rosstat data; Public Opinion Foundation survey; industry briefings]