Reports from African states indicate a noticeable uptick in their wheat purchases sourced from Russia, a trend observed by Elena Tyurina who heads the Analytical Department at the Russian Grain Union (RGU). The shift suggests a broader realignment in regional grain markets as African buyers pursue new or restored supply lines to meet growing domestic needs, with several nations increasing imports in a season that has raised questions about logistics, pricing, and credit arrangements across the continent.
Tyurina noted a change from the previous season, when wheat shipments from Russia to certain markets such as the United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Tanzania, and Angola were reduced or paused. This season, she described a climate of heightened activity as deliveries to Africa regain momentum. The rebound reflects a combination of competitive pricing, improved freight options, and the willingness of buyers to engage in long-term procurement commitments in a fluctuating global grain market.
According to the Russian Grain Union, February saw grain product exports from Russia totaling 3.7 million tons, a figure that represents a 35.4 percent rise compared with February 2022. This uptick is being watched closely by traders and policymakers who monitor the pace of shipments against seasonal expectations and export capacity. The RGU data point underscores Russia’s ongoing role in global grain trade, especially for wheat, as buyers in several regions reassess their sourcing strategies in light of price movements and domestic crop weather patterns.
Tyurina also suggested that the acceleration in shipments might be aided by a shift in payment arrangements, with some major buyers moving toward ruble-based settlements. Turkey and Egypt, in particular, have been highlighted as key partners that help streamline payment processes and reduce currency risk, thereby facilitating larger or more frequent orders. The move toward ruble transactions is interpreted by market observers as a factor that could enhance continuity of supply, even amid broader geopolitical tensions and currency volatility affecting international trade.
RGU projects that Russia could reach about 18 million tons of export potential for its wheat by the end of the current season, a target that roughly translates to monthly shipments around 4.5 million tons if the market stays on its projected trajectory through June. This forecast reflects ongoing adjustments in export policy, port capacity, and the ability to maintain stable logistics for shipments destined for multiple regions. Observers note that the final outcome will depend on factors such as weather in Russia, global demand patterns, and the resolution of any trade frictions that could influence buyers’ willingness to lock in large commitments. In addition to the direct flow of grain, remarks from regional officials in Turkey have hinted at efforts to channel Russian grain toward poorer African nations, a development viewed by analysts as potentially meaningful for regional food security and humanitarian aid programs. The broader implication is a reshaping of supply routes and financing structures that could affect multiple stakeholders in the global grain market.