Volumes of new housing transactions in major Russian cities softened in March as buyers grew more cautious, while prices edged higher across key markets. Market observers noted that the rise in quoted prices did not always translate into higher purchasing activity, signaling a shift in demand dynamics rather than a universal expansion of the market. In the report summarized by Kommersant, the rate of growth for primary housing costs slowed into a modest gain, even as the overall pool of buyers paused to reassess financing conditions.
Analysts tracked by the outlet reported that the average price of new residential space in 18 important regional markets climbed by 1.1 percent during March, reaching 166.2 thousand rubles per square meter. This movement reflects a price environment where sellers hold firm on sticker prices even as demand cools, a pattern consistent with a market recalibration rather than a rush to liquidate inventories.
Transaction activity also declined, with February showing a notable dip in the number of equity participation contracts registered in the Moscow region. The figure stood at around 8 thousand contracts, marking a 15 percent decrease from January and a 5 percent drop year over year. This trend aligns with a broader tightening of credit conditions and rising caution among buyers who weigh mortgage affordability against future rate expectations.
Industry voices point to the influence of lending policy on buyer sentiment. Alexey Popov, head of Cyan.Analytics, observed that while online views of property listings remained elevated, the conversion rate from views to contracts had fallen. He attributed the slowdown to a tightening in concessional mortgage programs, particularly the reduction of lending limits in the capital regions to six million rubles. The constraint on financing capacity appears to be a key determinant of demand, dampening the pace at which buyers commit to new-build purchases.
Yandex Real Estate’s Commercial Director, Evgeniy Belokurov, echoed the sentiment that the decision cycle for buyers had lengthened. Prospective purchasers are weighing current market signals more carefully, and many are postponing definitive steps while they monitor any potential shifts in credit terms or government programs. The sense of a hold pattern persisted as buyers awaited clearer signs of favorable conditions that would unlock decisive action on purchases.
Looking forward, banks’ tougher borrowing metrics as of March 1 are expected to exert continued pressure on demand. While some developers may respond with attractive installment plans and instant discounts to stimulate sales, experts do not anticipate a sharp decline in prices across the market. The prevailing view is that pricing will likely stabilize with pockets of regional variation depending on the availability and structure of targeted mortgage programs. Industry projections from Etazhi suggest demand for new builds may hold firm through the summer, with a modest price increase near 1 percent per month on average. However, the trajectory will vary by region, reflecting differences in program access and local economic conditions.
Beyond the urban centers, a different pattern has emerged in the broader housing landscape. In recent months Russia has seen growing interest in country houses and land plots, signaling a diversification of buyer preferences amid shifting lending conditions and evolving consumer risk assessments. While urban dwellings remain a critical focus, buyers are increasingly considering satellite communities and rural parcels as part of a long-term housing strategy. This trend appears to sit alongside ongoing demand for more traditional city-resident options, creating a mosaic of buyer profiles with varying needs and timelines.
In this evolving environment, the emphasis for buyers is shifting from rapid decision-making to careful planning. Mortgage terms, affordability thresholds, and the availability of supportive financing products will continue to shape the pace of transactions. For developers, the challenge lies in balancing pricing with the need to maintain sales momentum without eroding margins. The market is not collapsing, but it is adapting—regional differences will remain pronounced as policy programs and lender criteria fluctuate across the country.
The March data thus paint a picture of a market undergoing a measured adjustment. Price growth persists, but at a more restrained pace, while demand consolidates around products and programs that offer clear financial viability. As the springquarter progresses, stakeholders will be watching how credit conditions, government incentives, and shifting consumer confidence interact to determine the next phase of activity in Russia’s housing market.