At a recent VTB forum titled “Russia is Calling,” the bank’s chairman, Andrei Kostin, suggested that the dollar is unlikely to retreat to 100 rubles within the current year. He spoke between sessions, offering a pragmatic view of the currency landscape and the factors shaping it. The comments were reported by RIA News.
Kostin argued that there are no clear catalysts on the horizon to push the ruble into a stronger phase, and he does not anticipate a rapid appreciation to the 100 ruble mark against the dollar by year-end. His forecast places the ruble in a range around 90 to 90-plus per dollar, signaling a relatively resilient but not overextended currency position. The emphasis is on dialing in an equilibrium for the ruble rather than a sharp revaluation, according to the VTB chief. He also noted that even with fluctuations, the direct inflationary impact from currency depreciation is limited in his assessment.
In a separate development, December brought remarks from prominent Russian business figures about currency dynamics and broader sanctions implications. Oleg Deripaska, a well-known industrialist, highlighted that last year saw a doubling in the volume of transactions denominated in Chinese yuan, a shift attributed in part to the ongoing sanctions regime imposed by the United States and the European Union. This trend points to a diversification of settlement currencies in response to external pressures and the search for alternative liquidity channels.
Additionally, Ayaz Aliyev, a candidate of economic sciences and associate professor at the Department of Finance at the Russian University of Economics for Sustainable Development, provided commentary on currency ceilings. In conversation with socialbites.ca, Aliyev suggested that December could see a cap on the ruble’s strengthening near the 93 to 95 rubles per dollar range, while the euro could trade around 102 to 105 rubles. These projections reflect a cautious stance on the near-term path of major currencies and underline the role of macroeconomic policy, external demand, and market expectations in shaping daily movements.
Earlier assessments from market strategists also pointed to a possible tightening of the dollar’s course, though not in a manner that would trigger a sharp decline. The overall tone from analysts included phrases about stabilization, the need for monetary policy to maintain balance, and close attention to inflation dynamics in an environment of global capital flows and sanctions-related recalibrations. Observers emphasize that both domestic policy posture and international risk sentiment will be critical in determining the ruble’s rhythm over the coming weeks and months.
Taken together, the comments from Kostin, Deripaska, and Aliyev sketch a picture of a currency landscape where modest appreciation is plausible but not guaranteed, and where diversification of settlement currencies may become more commonplace. The emphasis remains on finding an equilibrium level for the ruble, with inflationary pressures kept in check by prudent policy responses and a careful assessment of external shocks. In this context, market participants are watching for any signs of policy shifts, commodity price trends, and changes in global financial conditions that could alter the balance in favor of a stronger or weaker ruble. (Source attribution: Reuters and local financial analysts.)