The current avian flu outbreak has spread far beyond routine seasonal patterns, battering poultry populations worldwide and posing serious risks to egg and poultry-product supply chains. Experts describe the situation as the most severe animal-disease episode on record. This disruption is driving price increases for eggs and other poultry products and could have lasting consequences for animal health and farm economics, according to market updates from Bloomberg.
Seasonal poultry monitoring typically peaks each October, but this year the virus moved through flocks during warmer months, accelerating transmission and triggering widespread culling. The World Organization for Animal Health reports that poultry losses from October through early December are roughly 70% higher than the same period last year, reaching about 16.1 million birds on December 1. In the twelve months ending September, more than 138 million birds were lost, a figure that eclipses what happened in the prior five years combined, as noted by WOAH.
In multiple major markets, including the United States and the United Kingdom, the outbreak has raised concerns about traditional holiday meals and seasonal specialties such as roast turkey during Thanksgiving and Christmas. Beyond the table, the culling reduces the overall food supply from eggs to specialty products like foie gras, contributing to broader food-price pressures that households feel at checkout. Industry observers warn that a vaccine could still be several years away, complicating short-term planning for farmers and retailers (Bloomberg).
Dirk Mulder, an animal-protein analyst with Rabobank Nan, remarked that global poultry meat production is expected to rise by roughly 1% this year and next, yet will still lag historical norms by about 2.5%. He underscored that the current dynamic is a price-driven cycle, with rising costs and constrained supply feeding higher market prices (Bloomberg).
Despite the heightened risk, Mulder also noted a paradox in the market: elevated prices can help farmers balance budgets in the short term by supporting revenue when demand remains steady. He explained that while risks are mounting in step with infections, the limited supply base means demand for poultry products persists, creating a volatile but potentially favorable environment for producers who can manage production costs and biosecurity measures effectively (Bloomberg).