Market competition among gasoline producers in Russia remains limited, a factor many analysts say prevents a meaningful drop in fuel prices. This perspective was highlighted in an interview with RIA Novosti, where Kirill Rodionov, an expert at the Institute for the Development of Fuel and Energy Complex Technologies, discussed the implications of lifting the export ban on gasoline. [RIA Novosti interview]
Rodionov argues that once exports are allowed again, it could help normalize how the fuel market is regulated. Yet such a move is unlikely to trigger a sharp decrease in gasoline prices for consumers. The bottleneck, he notes, is the lack of real competition in fuel production. In essence, the market operates under a pragmatic, informal agreement where major oil companies keep prices in line with inflation while receiving substantial subsidies to refineries. This dynamic reduces the incentive to push prices downward and maintains a steady price corridor rather than a downward trend. [RIA Novosti interview]
The analyst suggests that addressing this structural issue would require more than a single policy adjustment. He points to several measures that could alter the competitive landscape: stronger controls on crude oil refineries to prevent monopolistic conditions, higher standards for fuel barter sales to improve liquidity, reductions in excise taxes that burden consumers, and a simplification of regional rules that hinder the expansion of network capacity for new gas stations. Taken together, these steps would ease entry for new players and intensify competition, which in turn could influence price dynamics at the pump. [RIA Novosti interview]
Since spring, foreign-exchange movements have influenced gasoline and diesel prices within Russia, with prices at the pump climbing to historically high levels and the pace of increases accelerating. Over several months, these trends helped push wholesale price levels upward, placing pressure on the domestic market. The government’s decision to suspend exports of gasoline and diesel on September 21, followed by the policy’s easing on November 17, created waves across the fuel sector. According to the Ministry of Energy, the domestic market has since shown signs of oversupply, contributing to lower wholesale prices as winter approaches. The ministry also noted that the anticipated drop in demand for gasoline during the colder months would reduce refinery utilization in the near term. [RIA Novosti interview]
Previously, there was discussion in Russia about increasing penalties for dishonest fuel supply practices. The intent behind such measures would be to discourage supply chain misconduct, improve market integrity, and support more predictable pricing for consumers. While these enforcement ideas reflect ongoing concerns about market behavior, they are part of a broader conversation about how to achieve a more competitive and transparent fuel market that benefits both suppliers and buyers. [RIA Novosti interview]