“Long-awaited” limitation
The G7 economies are set to unveil a cap on Russian oil prices this week, a move long discussed among policymakers and market observers. The aim is to curb revenue from Russia’s oil exports while reducing disruption to global energy markets.
Nevertheless, several EU members including Cyprus, Malta, and Greece are uneasy, fearing repercussions for their shipping sectors. Diplomats and senior officials who spoke on background warned that new sanctions designed to block Russian oil shipments unless traded under a price ceiling could also impact fleets that have already shifted from EU registration to flags linked to other countries, such as China, Turkey, or India, in an effort to bypass the cap. These officials emphasized the potential challenges for fleets that no longer fly EU colors but still operate in European waters.
Politico reports that the sanctions are intended to stop shipping and insurance firms from moving Russian oil unless it is priced below the agreed ceiling. For the measure to take full effect, all 27 EU member states must approve the plan.
There is concern, according to the same sources, that Greece, Cyprus, and Malta might adjust their positions at the final moment. The article notes that the EU has already offered concessions and has relaxed some sanctions on other Russian goods such as fertilizers and cement to ease the impact on the shipping industry.
The piece adds that the 27 EU members must sign off on the price cap before the EU embargo on Russian oil kicks in on December 5. In the eighth package of anti-Russian measures, member states reportedly reached agreement on the legal framework to limit prices, even if the exact figure had not yet been published.
There is no fixed price announced yet. The European Commission briefed member states on the technical aspects of the ceiling but withheld the precise amount.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has floated a possible price ceiling near $60 per barrel for Russian oil, a figure discussed in public and private conversations among Western officials.
ninth pack
As the ninth sanctions package against Moscow is being drafted, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are pressing for a synchronized decision, urging the European Commission and their partners to agree on an oil price cap alongside a broader set of new penalties. Some reports describe these efforts as a push to coordinate timing, rather than to push through a fully formed package before it is ready.
Other EU diplomats have tempered expectations, warning that tying the price ceiling to new sanctions could complicate negotiations and delay action. In conversations with Politico, two EU officials suggested that the ninth package will focus on tightening blacklists, aiming to bring in new names of Russian officials, propagandists, businessmen, and others who are viewed as supporting President Vladimir Putin’s regime.
EU members have been shown long lists of names for consideration, with commission experts working to vet and finalize potential additions.
There is talk that Members of the European Parliament want the Wagner private military company added to the list of terrorist organizations. The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, received a letter from MEPs on November 11 urging Wagner to be designated as a terrorist entity due to ongoing violations of international law in Ukraine and prior involvement in other conflicts.
Pairing issues
The Hill reported on November 13 that EU disagreements persisted over sanctions related to Russia’s nuclear fuel supply and cooperation with Rosatom. Rosatom currently provides fuel to nuclear plants in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Hungary. Cutting off this supply could inflict immediate economic damage on those states.
On November 14, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell indicated that the bloc was not yet ready to discuss new sanctions against Russia, stating that the process requires proposals, legal review, and a careful admissions process. He warned that deliberations would continue but cautioned that changes would come only after thorough checks.