January 2024 Mortgage Activity in Russia Shows Sharp Slowdown Amid Rate Hikes
In the opening weeks of 2024, mortgage demand in Russia fell markedly as the central bank kept the key interest rate high through December 2023. Analysts using the TYMY SaaS platform, and confirmed by Find Insight, observed a clear contraction in loan applications. A copy of the underlying calculations is available to editors at socialbites.ca.
Between December 18 and 24, the number of mortgage applications dropped by 11 percent compared with the prior week. The decline widened to 43 percent in the period from December 25 to 31. In January, the slowdown intensified further, with the monthly figure plunging by more than one third relative to December.
Nikita Arzamastsev, co-founder of the AI analysis service Find Insight and Product Director of TYMY, noted that seasonal factors also played a role. Historically, early January sees softer activity in the mortgage market, a pattern that amplified the observed downturn this year.
“Demand has nearly stalled; activity hovered around 7-10 percent of the weekly average. This downturn naturally influenced the monthly outcome, as January yielded about 38 percent fewer applications than December. The result is a serious slowdown, yet it does not imply a complete loss of market interest,” Arzamastsev explained.
Another notable shift occurred in the composition of applications: the share of residential mortgages for properties under construction decreased noticeably. The structure moved from a December range of 64-74 percent to a January range of 54-60 percent. Meanwhile, the approval rate remained steady, roughly at 50 percent for both ready-to-live homes and those still under construction.
Alexey Maistrenko, the service’s general director, highlighted volatility as the dominant trend in the current mortgage landscape. He emphasized that market participants will need to adapt in the coming months to shifting conditions and evolving policy signals.
Earlier coverage touched on practical steps for buyers, including information about tax deductions available in 2024 for housing purchases. These changes remain a relevant backdrop as lenders reassess risk and consumer demand evolves.
Historically, average loan sizes and terms in Russia had reached record levels before these recent shifts. The evolving environment continues to shape borrower expectations and lender offerings, with credit conditions tightening and new programs taking shape in response to macroeconomic signals.