An economist from the Department of Economic and Financial Studies at the CMS Institute, speaking to a national news outlet, addressed public perceptions about how a ruble collapse would affect consumer prices. The expert argued that the widely held belief that prices would surge and stay elevated across the board is not accurate, based on current dynamics observed in the market.
According to the analyst, price marks for a range of goods have remained within a narrow band relative to the beginning of February, staying within inflationary limits rather than climbing dramatically. This observation is a reminder that not all consumer prices move in lockstep with currency volatility, and it underscores the role of broader macroeconomic factors in shaping daily cost of living.
At the same time, the economist highlighted the impact of the withdrawal of foreign firms from the Russian market. He noted a real shortage across several product categories as a result of reduced imports. In particular, sectors such as auto parts, construction equipment and finishing materials, as well as computer components and network gear, have felt the effect of fewer foreign suppliers operating domestically.
The analyst emphasized that the absence of certain imported goods—or the decision by manufacturers to halt operations—can shift supply dynamics. If ongoing parallel import channels were disrupted, he warned, consumer prices could experience more pronounced changes. In other words, the price path for many items could diverge from current trends and move in a steeper direction than previously anticipated.
He noted that while prices would not revert to exactly January levels, discounts on current price points could still push down by as much as a 30 percent adjustment, depending on product category, availability, and alternative sourcing. This potential recalibration would come through a mix of new imports, resourced substitutes, and domestic production adjustments rather than a simple, uniform price reset across all goods.
On the financial front, the market responded to recent currency movements with greater calm. The dollar briefly traded below the 71 ruble mark, the first such occurrence since the preceding autumn, while the euro dipped toward the 70 ruble level for the first time since early 2020. These shifts reflect a complex interplay of global capital flows, domestic policy signals, and market expectations about future inflation and growth, rather than a single driving force. The analyst stressed that currency trajectories alone do not determine price outcomes; consumer prices are also shaped by supply chain resilience, fiscal policy, and consumer demand patterns across both urban and rural segments of the population.