Inflation in Russia cooled over the first two weeks of 2024. During January 10 to 15, the price increase slowed by about half, moving from 0.26% to 0.13%, while the annual pace also eased. These shifts were reported by major newspapers under the heading News.
In 2023, Russia recorded an overall inflation rate of 7.42%. For much of the year, price growth was modest. By May, annual inflation stood at around 2.5% despite a high base effect. However, inflation accelerated during the autumn, even as the central bank raised rates substantially. The key rate doubled from 7.5% to 15%. By September, inflation reached 6%, climbing further toward year-end as prices increased across several sectors.
The year’s driver mix remained uneven. Food prices, especially eggs, alongside medicines, fuel, and services, contributed most to the inflation picture. Non-food prices rose more slowly, by about 5.5% for the year. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and fuel, advanced at a more moderate pace than headline inflation.
ministry of Economic Development reported a notable slowdown in price growth during the second week of January 2024. In both weekly and annual terms, inflation cooled to 0.13% and 7.4%, respectively. Services prices held nearly flat, while food costs rose at roughly a third of their earlier pace. Non-food prices rose a bit, but not as rapidly as in the prior period.
Analysts pointed to market factors rather than structural changes as the main drivers of the slowdown. One chief economist noted that constrained credit access and rising deposits were contributing to softer inflation in non-food groups.
Industry researchers from consulting firms observed that cooling inflation has occurred, yet a broad global reversal in price growth is not anticipated in the near term. Inflation remains heterogeneous across segments and products, with some categories showing price declines while others experience persistent gains. For example, certain staple items have seen marked price reductions in the past two years, illustrating a shifting affordability landscape rather than a uniform trend.
Market watchers also noted the relationship between currency movements and domestic prices. Real estate investments, while sensitive to currency risk, can experience value preservation in inflationary environments, though currency shifts may affect returns. The broader financial outlook remains cautious, with policymakers watching for signs that demand and supply dynamics align to stabilize the inflation path.
Overall, observers emphasize that inflation outcomes depend on a balance of consumer demand, supply conditions, and policy responses. While the early 2024 data point to continuing moderation, the inflation journey is not uniform across sectors, and some prices may still move independently of broader trends.