The central bank projects the lowest point of annual inflation in Russia for April, signaling a potential easing in price growth. The institution notes that the inflation rate could dip below 4 percent by spring 2023, a movement largely driven by the base effect. In other words, external restrictions that were in place in early 2022 created a temporary spike in prices during March and April of that year, which now acts as a benchmark to soften inflation comparisons in subsequent months.
At the start of 2023, the central bank highlighted that annual inflation across Russia stood at 11.77 percent in January. Among the country’s regions, inflation varied significantly, with some areas reporting rates as low as 6.6 percent and others as high as 18.1 percent. These figures come from materials published by the Central Bank of Russia, which tracks regional disparities as part of its inflation monitoring framework.
The 6.6 percent regional minimum was observed in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, while the 18.1 percent maximum appeared in the Republic of Ingushetia. Such regional differences reflect local factors in price dynamics, including housing, utilities, and food costs, as well as the different paces of wage and consumption growth across the federation. The central bank emphasizes that regional readings can diverge notably even as the national trend moves toward moderation.
In mid-February, Rosstat reported a renewed acceleration in inflation on a year-over-year basis, noting that the rate rose to 11.8 percent over the latest 12-month period. This uptick occurred amid ongoing macroeconomic pressures and evolving domestic demand conditions. Looking ahead, the Ministry of Economic Development offered a provisional forecast suggesting that inflation could settle around 5.5 percent for the year, depending on the path of external prices, exchange rate movements, and fiscal policy stimuli. These projections underscore the central bank’s cautious stance on inflation risks and the sensitivity of price growth to both global energy and commodity markets and domestic policy responses. (attribution Central Bank of Russia)