After a softening of price growth in 2023, helped by the policy stance of major central banks, economists warn that rising oil costs could rekindle higher inflation in 2025 and 2026. This assessment is attributed to Maxim Achkasov, a managing partner at MI Achkasov & Co, as reported by RIA Novosti. The message is clear: inflation did not vanish with the 2023 slowdown, and recent price movements suggest a return to stronger inflationary pressures in the near term.
Experts noted that the deceleration seen in 2023 might prove temporary. Food prices, in particular, have surged in several markets, signaling that price growth remains a persistent factor rather to be ignored. Looking ahead to 2025 and 2026, projections point to inflation running five to seven percentage points higher than the established 4 to 5 percent corridor seen in 2023, according to Achkasov.
Achkasov explained that the acceleration in price increases is tied to higher costs for raw materials and industrial metals. He highlighted oil as a key lever, suggesting that Brent crude could trend toward the 130 to 150 dollar range in 2025, with a possible 100 to 130 dollar band in the following year. A sustained rise above 100 dollars per barrel would feed into broader inflation momentum, while recent weeks have seen Brent fluctuating within a narrower band around 71 to 77 dollars per barrel. Food inflation is expected to amplify these general price pressures, potentially widening the overall inflationary landscape.
The report from RIA Novosti also points to notable national differences in food inflation. Hungary experienced the highest annual rate in April of this year, marking a 39 percent increase. In contrast, Russia stood out as the only country within the European region where food prices began to ease after the April data release, a divergence that underscores how regional dynamics can shape inflation trends even within a connected market environment. [RIA Novosti]