The International Monetary Fund believes that China could see a real economy expansion of about 20% over the next decade and a half, provided it pursues a thorough set of market-oriented reforms. This view was shared during the China Development Forum by the IMF managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, and noted by TASS. The message is clear: with a comprehensive reform package, China’s growth trajectory could outpace the path it follows under the current, more gradual approach.
Georgieva underscored the importance of putting the real estate sector on a sustainable footing and addressing local government debt risks to support a smooth transition to a new era of high-quality growth. She emphasized that decisive steps to reduce unfinished housing stock, create space for sound market regulation, and level the playing field between private and state-owned entities are essential. Strengthening human capital and healthcare investments is also highlighted as a driver of productivity and long-term prosperity for the economy.
The IMF chief pointed to China’s vast potential in areas like artificial intelligence and the green economy, stressing that targeted reforms in these sectors could amplify productivity gains and foster resilient, inclusive growth. The discussion comes amid a broader dialogue on how China can sustain momentum while managing financial risk and ensuring stable, transparent institutions that support both domestic and international investment.
Beyond the reform agenda, the forum touched on the evolving dynamics of U.S.-China relations. The report notes ongoing conversations about policy approaches and how sanctions and trade measures influence the global economy, including markets in Canada and the United States. Observers highlight that a pragmatic, rules-based framework could help minimize disruption and encourage cooperative outcomes in technology, trade, and investment. This context matters for international stakeholders seeking clarity on future growth prospects and policy directions in the region. (IMF, China Development Forum reports, 2024)
Overall, the IMF’s assessment signals that with strategic reforms—especially in housing, local government finance, and the business environment—China could realize substantial productivity gains through improved human capital development and leadership in cutting-edge sectors. Such a path would align with goals for sustainable, high-quality growth that benefits workers, households, and private enterprise alike. (IMF analysis, 2024)