The International Energy Agency reports that Russia’s coal production is expected to drop by 3.9% in 2026 compared with 2023, reaching around 439 million tons. This projection comes from data cited by Vedomosti and supported by the IEA.
The decline is attributed to weaker global demand for seaborne solid fuels. The IEA notes that China will account for about half of Russia’s coal exports by the end of 2023, yet analysts anticipate a downturn in Russia’s coal imports from China over the next few years. This shift points to changing trade dynamics and evolving market access for Russian coal.
Industry expectations, based on the IEA report, indicate a geographic shift in Russia’s coal production from western regions toward eastern hubs. The eastern coal centers are poised to grow in order to meet Chinese demand, even as overall exports and production trend lower. This regional realignment mirrors broader shifts in supply chains and energy geopolitics.
Conversely, Western sanctions and ongoing railway logistics challenges have disrupted Russia’s growth in coal production. These frictions mean the country may miss opportunities driven by high global demand and elevated coal prices, according to the IEA assessment.
In August 2022, the European Union imposed a ban on Russian coal imports. In response to sanctions, Russian fuel exports decreased by about 1% in 2022, landing at roughly 221.2 million tons, while total production rose just 0.3% to 443.6 million tons.
Previous statements by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak indicated that China would supply a record amount of coal, exceeding 100 million tons, in 2023. The Ministry of Energy also forecasts that Russia’s coal production and exports will stay near 2022 levels in the near term.
India plans to increase purchases of coking coal from Russia by the end of November, signaling continued interest from major regional buyers. The broader energy landscape remains shaped by geopolitical headwinds and evolving demand patterns across Europe and Asia.
Earlier energy market developments are weighed as part of a global context, with emphasis on how sanctions, transport logistics, and shifting demand influence Russia’s coal sector and its role in international energy trade.