Should Russia tighten conditions for labor migrants, the flow of workers may decline, with ensuing effects on the housing market. Konstantin Aprelev, deputy chairman of the Russian Association of Realtors, warned that any such change is unlikely to alter apartment prices, which have already hit record highs. The more immediate concern would be how housing deliveries are scheduled and completed, a point he emphasized in conversations with NSN.
Aprelev noted that today’s apartment prices are exceptionally high, having surged by about 50 percent during the pandemic and then climbing another 20–30 percent as buyers shifted preference from new builds to existing stock. This shift helped sustain demand and contribute to the current price levels, according to market observers and industry insiders cited in our reporting.
Current immigration trends have not shown a decline in the number of workers entering the country, but analysts believe that any substantial drop in labor migrants could reduce demand for housing. If demand eases, property prices could stabilize rather than retreat. This is the view of several industry specialists who monitor market cycles and consumer behavior in real time. (Source: NSN)
Regulatory and policy changes already on the table appear to give developers more flexibility. Government documents dated March 22 permit extending housing delivery deadlines without penalties. The Ministry of Construction has indicated readiness to adjust expectations amid potential shifts in demand and in the availability of labor, signaling a proactive stance to avert project slowdowns. (Source: NSN)
Aprelev cautioned that a migrant labor shortage could slow the pace of housing delivery but stressed that the impact is not uniform across all regions or construction sites. He pointed out that many projects do not rely on immigrant labor for critical tasks, underscoring regional differences in how markets respond to workforce changes. (Source: NSN)
With the question of sanctions still unresolved, predicting specific regional effects remains premature. The vice president of the realtors’ guild urged prudence, noting that the market is influenced by a variety of factors, including regional demand, project type, and developer strategies. (Source: NSN)
There is ongoing discussion about the proposed two-year limit on employment contracts for foreign workers. The Ministry of Labor has argued that this timeframe is sufficient to complete projects that employ migrants, aiming to balance project timelines with regulatory oversight. This stance continues to shape expectations for both developers and buyers in the housing sector. (Source: NSN)
Earlier calls from lawmakers for urgent oversight of labor migrants in Russia have become part of a broader debate about labor policy, construction productivity, and housing affordability. Market participants are watching closely how policy shifts will interact with supply chains, regional labor markets, and consumer sentiment as the year progresses. (Source: NSN)