Updated data indicate that the price of gold in the foreign exchange market could top 2600 dollars per ounce by year end, according to bets from UBS, the Swiss financial group. Earlier projections had suggested a rise to around 2200 dollars per ounce, but the latest forecasts show a stronger trajectory driven by ongoing demand and macro dynamics across major markets.
Analysts also expect the gold market to maintain a level above 2400 dollars per ounce as October approaches. At present, June gold futures are trading near 2350 dollars per ounce, a level that sits in the upper half of the recent trading range and reflects a balance between inflation concerns, real yields, and geopolitical tensions. Market participants are watching for shifts in central bank policy and dollar strength that could nudge prices further higher or cause brief pullbacks within the current corridor.
UBS emphasizes that one of the key engines behind the recent price strength is sustained demand from central banks worldwide. The People’s Bank of China has emerged as the dominant buyer this year, expanding its gold holdings as part of broader efforts to diversify reserve portfolios and bolster financial resilience. This move tends to support prices on a global scale, as central bank purchases are interpreted by traders as a signal of strategic confidence in gold as a reserve asset and a hedge against currency volatility.
From a regional perspective, Russia posted stronger first quarter results that lifted its standing in global reserve rankings. The country rose from sixth to eighth place in terms of gold and foreign exchange reserves, with total assets estimated around 424 billion dollars. The change reflects ongoing adjustments in reserve composition and the strategic role gold plays in the country’s balance sheet, alongside other asset types that help manage exposure to currency and capital flows on the international stage.
Earlier assessments highlighted that a substantial portion of Russian gold holdings sits outside the central bank vaults, stored in private safes or alternative secure locations. This distribution suggests a broader trend toward diversification within household and institutional portfolios, with investors seeking physical exposure as a complement to bullion held in official reserves. Such dynamics contribute to the overall narrative of rising demand for gold as both a financial asset and a store of value in times of market volatility and policy uncertainty.