With demand for lithium rising, experts warn the metal could become scarce as soon as 2025. CNBC quotes analysts who flag this potential shortage as a key trend in the lithium market.
A report from BMI Research indicates that a surge in consumption, led by China, will drive the shortage. It notes that China’s annual lithium demand for electric vehicles is expected to grow at about 20.4 percent year over year from 2023 to 2032. Analysts also project that supply will rise only around 6 percent over the same period, meaning the market may not meet even a fraction of the growing demand. (Citation: BMI Research report)
China currently ranks as the world’s third largest lithium producer, behind Australia and Chile. Global production reached roughly 540 thousand tons in 2021. Forecasts from the World Economic Forum suggest that by 2030, world demand could top 3 million tons driven largely by the rapid spread of electric vehicles. Market researchers at S&P Global Commodity Insights project vehicle sales to reach 13.8 million units this year, climbing to well over 30 million by 2030. (Citation: World Economic Forum and S&P Global Commodity Insights projections)
Corine Blanchard, Deutsche Bank’s research director for lithium and clean technologies, estimates a deficit of roughly 40–60 thousand tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by the end of 2025, expanding to around 768 thousand tons by 2030. Susan Zou, vice president of Rystad Energy, cautions that shortages as early as 2028 could begin to disrupt global supply chains. (Citation: Deutsche Bank and Rystad Energy analyses)
Lithium holds the distinction of being the lightest metal in the world. In metallurgy, it deoxidizes and enhances the ductility and strength of alloys. It plays a role in producing specially treated glasses that shield against ultraviolet light. It is also used in nuclear energy and technologies to produce tritium, a radioactive isotope of hydrogen. However, the majority of lithium is directed to the manufacture of lithium-ion batteries for a wide range of applications. (Citation: technical and industry sources)
Historically, India enacted export prohibitions on lithium along with beryllium, niobium, and tantalum, shaping early global trade dynamics in these critical minerals. (Citation: historical policy records)