By year’s end, global growth is expected to ease to about 2.1 percent, a softer pace than the 2022 expansion. Analysts at the World Bank point to several influential forces shaping this path, including the persistence of higher interest rates and growing financial risks flagged by major global regulators. The projection captures ongoing economic headwinds and the careful juggling act policymakers undertake as they steer economies through tighter financial conditions while confronting a shifting risk landscape and evolving demand patterns that affect investment, consumption, and productivity over time.
The World Bank has refreshed its growth outlook for a wide array of economies, marking downward revisions for roughly seven in ten emerging market and developing economies and for nearly all advanced economies. In many cases, the revisions reflect a broad recalibration of expectations rather than isolated shifts. The updated trajectory points to slower expansion across several regions as external pressures and domestic policy choices influence investment dynamics, household spending, and the pace of productivity gains in different sectors and countries.
For 2023, global growth is projected at 2.1 percent, down from 3.1 percent in the prior year. Regions beyond China are anticipated to register about 2.9 percent growth in 2023, compared with roughly 4.1 percent in 2022. The overall picture signals persistent headwinds rather than a rapid rebound, with growth momentum diverging across regions. The World Bank emphasizes that outside East and South Asia, momentum is not strong enough to meet targets on poverty reduction, climate action, and the expansion of human capital. This underscores the necessity for policy actions that strengthen resilience and promote inclusive development, so communities can weather shocks and participate in a more balanced global recovery.
On commodity prices and energy markets, the bank’s analysts offer a forward-looking view for the coming years. They anticipate crude oil priced near $80 per barrel toward year-end and a modest uptick to around $82 by 2024. The expected path for oil plays a pivotal role in shaping inflation trajectories, fiscal planning, and trade balances for a broad set of economies, influencing energy policy decisions, infrastructure investments, and long-run fiscal sustainability as governments plan for a steadier energy transition and more resilient energy systems.
Taken together, these projections paint a picture of a global economy navigating a period of pronounced volatility. Growth is tempered by higher borrowing costs, shifting demand patterns, and policy adjustments as governments work to stabilize finances and shield vulnerable households. Yet the World Bank also highlights clear opportunities to build resilience through targeted investments in productivity, education, health, and climate-smart infrastructure. Countries that push reforms to boost competitiveness, broaden social safety nets, and strengthen governance can better absorb shocks and sustain long-run development goals. The outlook invites policymakers to pursue risk-informed planning, diversify growth drivers, and deepen international cooperation to smooth imbalances and support shared prosperity across regions and income levels.