Global Factors Pressuring the Ruble: Possible Move to 77 per Dollar

A candid discussion with a candidate of Economic Sciences and a seasoned financial analyst, Vladimir Grigoriev of Lentoy.ru, explored a scenario where the dollar could push toward 77 rubles. He noted that Russia’s outward trade picture has shifted: exports are shrinking while imports rise, a combination that tends to increase demand for foreign currency and tighten the ruble’s flow. In his view, this dynamic usually puts downward pressure on the national currency, especially when external shocks hit the financial system. Grigoriev also pointed out that a number of major banks with sizable customer bases have fallen under a new round of Western sanctions, a factor that can further erode confidence and weaken the ruble in the near term. He stressed that such sanctions often accompany currency depreciation as markets reassess risk and capital flight intensifies. Looking ahead, the analyst suggested the ruble might slide to the 76.5–77 per dollar zone, a level that would reflect persistent pressure from trade imbalances and sanction-related risk. As context, the dollar traded around 75 rubles on the given day, illustrating how swiftly market sentiment can shift based on policy and sanctions headlines. On the previous day, TeleTrade analyst Vladimir Kovalev projected a weakening trend for the ruble in early March, with a potential range of roughly 71 to 78 rubles per dollar if external shocks were muted, underscoring the high volatility that characterizes the current environment and the sensitivity of the currency to macro news and sanctions developments.