The global economy is projected to grow by just 1.7 percent this year, down from an earlier estimate of 3 percent. The downgrade in June reflects tighter monetary policy from several central banks, ongoing supply-chain disruptions, and persistent recession risks. This assessment draws on the January World Bank forecast and analyses from regional experts.
Analysts warn that a sharp slowdown in global growth could place the year’s expansion among the weakest in the last thirty years. Only the pandemic-induced 2020 recession and the global financial crisis of 2009 are expected to be weaker.
At the end of 2022, global growth stood at 2.9 percent according to the World Bank projections. However, for 2023 the combination of widespread energy shortages and tighter financial conditions is likely to weigh on activity and potentially push the global economy toward recession. World Bank researchers emphasize that the world economy currently appears dangerously close to a downturn.
In Russia, the Finance Ministry estimated a 2.7 percent contraction in 2022. Some analysts warn that the trend could extend into 2023 due to ongoing international sanctions and their broader economic impact.