There is growing talk about the dollar era ending, but experts see it as unlikely in the near term.
The current economic landscape shows few prerequisites for de-dollarization on a global scale. The United States dollar remains the dominant currency for buying and selling commodities, especially oil, and it remains the primary benchmark for pricing, international reserves, and bank deposits. The dollar accounts for more debt issued through international bonds than all other currencies combined. Because of this dominance, discussions about the end of the dollar era often resemble wishful thinking rather than a concrete trajectory.
Nevertheless, political moves and restrictions on the use of the US financial infrastructure are creating incentives for some countries to pursue financial sovereignty. Governments are increasingly prioritizing national control over payments and settlements, which fuels interest in alternative currencies and payment systems alongside the dollar.
The pace of de-dollarization remains slow. The long-standing Bretton Woods framework established almost eight decades of dollar dominance, and this historical inertia cannot be ignored. Where it is technically feasible and economically sensible, the transition is gradual, with national currencies gaining prominence in regional blocs such as the Eurasian Economic Union, which includes Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan.
There is also talk about the emergence of a new reserve currency system. The Chinese yuan stands out as a leading example, with India moving to internationalize its rupee through coordinated government and central bank actions since 2014. The goal is to expand the yuan and rupee in international trade and finance, though progress remains incremental.
In the current environment, the ruble is already a regional reserve currency within the Eurasian Economic Union, particularly in cooperation with Belarus. Under sanctions, Russia has increasingly pursued settlements in national currencies with partners in Asia and the Middle East, including Iran and China. The central bank and government stress that shifts toward national currencies should respond to genuine demand from business and the public, rather than being forced by external pressure. The key is to reduce costs and balance mutual trade so that national currencies can effectively handle both exports and imports.
Negotiations with various countries continue on agreements to settle in national currencies. The most ambitious initiative involves the Shanghai Cooperation Organization partners, which include Russia, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, China, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. A working group with finance ministry and central bank representatives is coordinating activities, and roughly twenty events are planned from late 2022 through 2025. The central aim is to encourage the use of national currencies where business and economic interests align.
Looking ahead, regional currency use has already become a trend, especially across the broader Eurasian space that links the EAEU with Iran, India, and China. Similar movements are observed in parts of the Middle East and Central America, signaling deeper economic integration between neighboring economies.
The idea of a single BRICS currency remains controversial. While bilateral trade among BRICS members has grown, the economic weight of the United States and the European Union continues to dominate. A single currency would require substantial political and economic prerequisites. Historical examples, such as the transferable ruble in the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance, show that regional blocs can experiment with multilateral clearing, but achieving a unified BRICS currency is a complex, long-term project. Changing dynamics are noted, yet the dialogue around a single currency is not dismissed outright.
Discussions within the EAEU have also looked at the potential for a single currency, but the preference among members today leans toward expanding the use of national currencies for regional trade. International payments and risk management remain central topics at major forums, with ongoing reassurances that cooperation will focus on reducing costs and improving efficiency rather than forcing uniform currency adoption.
Overall, while the global transition toward a multipolar monetary system is visible, the full replacement of the dollar on a global scale is not imminent. The real shift is a gradual diversification of settlement currencies, with regional blocs testing new options and integrating local currencies more deeply into cross-border trade.