In 2023, there was no banking crisis anticipated for Russia, the United States, or Asia. Yet this scenario could emerge in Europe, a view echoed by experts in interviews conducted with Mikhail Zeltser, a senior analyst at BCС World of Investments. According to Zeltser, Europe could face a banking crisis due to a combination of shrinking industrial output in the euro area, costly energy, high inflation, and rising borrowing costs. He emphasized that Russia did not expect a banking crisis, pointing to capital movements moving away from Western patterns, reduced cross-border flows, and strained but stable internal liquidity within the banking system. This assessment also addressed the probability of a crisis on Russian soil in 2023.
Alexander Saraev, Deputy Director General at Expert RA, shared a similar view. He noted that a reduction in interest rates had laid the groundwork for a healthier lending climate and a recovery in the profitability of Russia’s banking sector. The conversation highlighted how policy measures and market dynamics could influence the trajectory of financial stability across regions.
Thorbjørn Becker, head of the Eastern Europe Institute at the Stockholm School of Economics, offered a cautious but insightful take following the onset of the conflict in Ukraine. He observed that Western sanctions did not deliver the intended long-term pressure on the Russian economy because the policy actions of the Central Bank of Russia, coupled with revenue from energy exports, helped stabilize financial conditions. The overall picture suggested resilience in Russia’s banking system amid external shocks, even as Europe faced a different set of macroeconomic challenges.
Across these expert assessments, the common thread is that each region reacts to unique drivers. In Europe, structural factors such as energy costs and industrial output shape risk, while in Russia, policy responses and external energy revenues have supported liquidity and profitability. The dynamic underscores the importance of monitoring energy markets, inflation trends, and policy responses as the global financial landscape evolves. Analysts continue to stress that real-time data and policy accuracy will be essential for predicting the next phase in the banking sector’s health across major economies.