Production in Germany is expected to drop sharply, with an estimated 65 percent reduction tied to the absence of gas from the Nord Stream pipeline. Bloomberg notes that Goldman Sachs based calculations underpin this projection. The scenario hinges on Russia not resuming gas transit through Nord Stream, which would compel Germany to implement mandatory energy rationing. In turn, such measures could trigger a substantial decline in industrial output and broader economic stress across the country.
On September 9, Handelsblatt reported that rising energy prices and dwindling energy resources would likely compress Germany’s GDP, setting off a wave of corporate bankruptcies and rising unemployment. Analysts from the Institute for the World Economy were cited, suggesting that Germany’s GDP could shrink by about 150 billion euros in 2023, a contraction ranging from 0.7 to 1.4 percent, with further pressure expected as energy bills increase by roughly 260 billion euros. The report emphasizes a climate of tightening energy supply and escalating costs that could reshape Germany’s economic trajectory for the near term.
Earlier disclosures indicated that the German gas importer Uniper considered the possibility of reducing Germany’s fuel consumption in response to Russia’s suspension of gas shipments via Nord Stream. This development underscored the fragility of energy supply chains and the potential ripple effects for industry, households, and government policy as Germany weighs contingency measures to shield its economy from supply shocks and price volatility.