Germany could face a substantial electricity gap in the near term, with estimates suggesting a four gigawatt shortfall by 2025 and a widening deficit to as much as 30 gigawatts by 2030. This projection comes from McKinsey consultants cited by Welt am Sonntag, highlighting a scenario where Germany would need the equivalent output of about 30 large thermal power plants just to keep the lights on. The analysis underscores the scale of the challenge and the potential reliability issues that could accompany higher demand and constrained supply.
Experts quoted in the report emphasize the severity of the trajectory, noting that a 30 gigawatt gap represents a sizeable capacity shortfall that would test grid resilience and require a combination of policy responses, infrastructure upgrades, and strategic energy management. In practical terms, the authors describe a future where Germany may need to deploy a broad mix of generation sources and demand-side measures to avoid recurring shortages and to stabilize electricity prices for households and businesses alike.
Looking ahead to 2030, the report warns that outages could become more frequent, with the possibility of outages occurring roughly one hundred times as often as today. The longest potential blackout phase could extend for multiple hours, raising concerns about critical services, industrial output, and the daily routines of residents across the country. The analysis points to the necessity of robust contingency plans, diversified energy portfolios, and enhanced grid strengthening to mitigate the risk of prolonged disruptions.
At the end of the previous year, the outlook for the European energy landscape was already tense. A cold snap set to sweep across the continent was expected to intensify pressure on energy supply chains. Weather conditions would largely determine whether Europe could endure the winter without widespread power outages. While milder autumn weather had reduced gas use and helped fill storage facilities, easing fears about gas shortages as supplies from upstream sources diminished, the onset of colder weather was initiating new pressures. The situation underscored how seasonal demand, storage dynamics, and cross-border energy flows interact to shape regional energy security and the likelihood of price volatility and supply constraints during peak periods.