In January, gasoline prices in Russia climbed notably on the back of fears about potential supply shortfalls, a trend traced by Interfax St. and corroborated by data from the St. Petersburg International Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange (SPIMEX). The market activity reflected a cautious mood among buyers and traders as they weighed available stock, refinery maintenance schedules, and the pace of deliveries to regional networks.
Market data show AI-92 fuel rising by about 26.3% to 51.1 thousand rubles per ton, while AI-95 jumped roughly 24.2% to 54.5 thousand rubles per ton. These movements signify a sharp snap in pricing within a compressed window, driven by logistical expectations and the perception of tightened near-term supply rather than a broad, sustained shortage. Industry observers note that price volatility can pulse in response to refinery status, export policies, and the balance between domestic consumption and export commitments.
The price uptick followed reports that a unit at LUKOIL’s Nizhny Novgorod Refinery was undergoing maintenance, a development that fed concerns about the potential for a tighter local supply chain. In response, Deputy Prime Minister Novak remarked that the overall market situation remained stable and that several producers were prepared to ramp up fuel deliveries to mitigate any shortages. Government and industry voices thus underscored the resilience of the distribution network even as spot prices reflected the short-term risk calculus.
Meanwhile, oversupply in other segments of the fuel complex contributed to a contrasting trend in January. Winter diesel fuel prices declined by about 14% to 58.7 thousand rubles per ton, reflecting softer demand during the season and the positive effect of ample inventory in certain supply corridors. At the same time, prices for summer and off-season diesel grades edged higher, signaling a nuanced mix of supply dynamics across the product slate and implying that seasonal factors and regional demand patterns continue to shape the price landscape.
Industry leadership, including remarks from Alexander Dyukov, head of Gazprom Neft, highlighted the current oversupply scenario as a factor that reduces the urgency to consider new restrictions on fuel exports from the Russian Federation. The conversation around policy and markets remains focused on balancing domestic needs with international commitments, as companies adjust their export strategies to reflect shifting stock levels and changing demand profiles in key regions.
Earlier statements from market operators and authorities touched on the question of price movements in the wake of any changes to export restrictions. The overarching message remains that price behavior in January was shaped by a combination of refinery maintenance, regulatory signals, and the ongoing negotiation between domestic supply capabilities and external demand pressures, rather than a single policy change or a sudden shock to the system. This snapshot underscores the importance of transparent reporting and continuous observation of how production schedules, logistical constraints, and market expectations interact to influence fuel prices across major Russian markets.