At the upcoming Central Bank meeting on September 15, analysts anticipate a rise in the key rate. This forecast comes from Finam and PSB analysts interviewed by socialbites.ca, reflecting a shared view among several experts observing the ruble economy and inflation dynamics.
Olga Belenkaya, who leads the macroanalysis department at Finam, notes that some inflation indicators have surpassed forecasts and that the risk of inflation accelerating remains elevated. This scenario could push the Bank of Russia to tighten policy further, she argues.
She adds that the signals from the Central Bank at the start of September point to a hawkish stance. Belenkaya explains that President Elvira Nabiullina’s public remarks suggest that keeping the rate unchanged or raising it will be on the table at the next rounds of discussions.
According to the analyst, a rate cut is unlikely until inflation shows a firm, sustained slowdown. Forecasts for 2024 have been revised upward by the central authority from 4 percent to 4.5 percent, underscoring that meeting the 4 percent inflation target in 2024 will require careful policy calibration.
The team at Finam believes the central bank will weigh two paths: holding the rate at 12 percent or lifting it by 100 to 150 basis points. The rate hike scenario appears more probable in their view, given the current inflation trajectory and the central bank’s stated goals.
Nikolai Ryaskov, General Director of Investments at PSB Management Company, agrees with this assessment. He suggests that the upcoming meeting could see a 50 to 100 basis points increase in the key rate, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation persistence and policy signaling.
On the eve of the Eurasian Economic Forum, German Gref, chairman of Sberbank, expressed confidence that the 12 percent rate will not be kept for long. He predicts a gradual easing cycle beginning in a few months. Once the effects of recent policy steps become clear, the Bank of Russia is expected to initiate a rate reduction sequence within three to six months, according to Gref.
Earlier in the year, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation took the unexpected step of raising the key rate to 12 percent during an unscheduled meeting, underscoring the central bank’s readiness to act decisively to curb inflation and shore up financial stability.