The dollar exchange rate in Russia dropped below 88 rubles for the first time since June, signaling a shift in the currency market. A prominent financier, Alexander Losev, attributes this movement to recent government measures. He suggested that the ruble could gain further strength in the near term, with the dollar potentially stabilizing in the 80–85 ruble range in 2024, based on his discussion with the 360 TV channel.
Losev emphasized the central role of a presidential decree in boosting the ruble, arguing that the decree accelerated the forced sale of a portion of Vladimir Putin’s foreign currency earnings. He noted that this action helped reverse the trend on the Moscow Exchange and halted the capital outflow from Russia, reshaping market sentiment and lending support to the ruble’s bounce-back.
The expert projected that by year-end the dollar could sit in the 85–90 ruble zone, with a further dip expected in the first quarter of the following year. He pointed out that these forecasts rely on the continued, systematic execution of the measures rather than sporadic flips. He recalled that the State Duma has proposed penalties for non-compliance with the decree on selling foreign currency earnings, which, if enacted, would reinforce the policy framework.
According to Losev, the ongoing, more orderly implementation of these measures appears to be the key driver behind the improving sentiment. He added that if external conditions remain stable, such as a balanced global crisis environment and steady oil prices that support export revenues, the dollar could stay within the 80–85 ruble corridor in early 2024.
Looking ahead, the financier expects the Russian financial market to eventually settle, paving the way for a potential easing of monetary policy. In his view, the central bank could respond to stabilizing fundamentals with a reduction in the key interest rate, reinforcing the tentative recovery of the ruble and broader market confidence.
Some analysts have offered a parallel forecast: a plateau for the dollar might appear later this year, followed by a stronger ruble in the early months of 2024. While these opinions vary, the general thread is a move toward price stabilization and a more predictable exchange environment as policy measures take stronger hold.
At the same time, experts caution that next week could bring volatility in the ruble or the euro, with possible declines against the dollar depending on global factors and domestic policy adjustments. Market watchers continue to monitor how the policy mix interacts with external developments, as investors weigh risks and opportunities in the currency and financial markets.
Overall, the dialogue among analysts underscores a transitional period for the ruble, characterized by regime-driven actions aimed at curbing capital outflows and delivering greater policy predictability. The balance between internal measures and global economic conditions will likely shape the timing and magnitude of future movements in the ruble-dollar exchange rate.