In a straightforward projection, the dollar might settle in the 90 to 95 ruble range next week. This forecast was shared with socialbites.ca by Denis Buivolov, an analyst at BCS World of Investments.
According to Buivolov, the rye currency could drift toward the upper end of the corridor that was established in early November after a period of domestic political and economic reassessment. He notes that there is no clear trigger for a sharp further decline in the ruble. The currency’s posture remains steadier thanks to the Central Bank of Russia’s policy stance, which features a higher key rate, a firm mandate requiring exporters to repatriate earnings, and a large portion of foreign currency receipts put to use within the country. Additionally, improved macroeconomic indicators help support the ruble, Buivolov explains.
Buivolov adds that the dollar’s strength on the global market continues to reflect tense geopolitical dynamics and rising yields on U.S. government bonds. This international backdrop contributes to a environment where the ruble can experience volatility, even as domestic policy actions provide some ballast.
On 27 October, the Central Bank raised the key rate by 200 basis points in a single decision, bringing it to 15 percent annually. The bank cited higher-than-anticipated inflation pressures and stressed that inflation risks remain elevated. It also highlighted that domestic demand growth appears to outpace the expansion in production capacity, reinforcing expectations of continued high price levels within Russia.
Following the decision, the ruble strengthened noticeably against the dollar for the first time since May, with the dollar briefly dipping below 93 rubles and the euro slipping under 98 rubles. Closing figures on the Moscow Stock Exchange showed the dollar around 94.125 rubles and the euro near 99.575 rubles, underscoring a sharp, immediate reaction to the tightening stance.
A former investment strategist commented on the notable appreciation of the ruble after the central bank’s move, noting that the currency received a concrete boost from the central bank’s policy signal and the revised inflation outlook. The analyst attributed part of the move to altered expectations about domestic demand and the trajectory of price growth, framing the development as a response to the monetary policy tightening and its impact on capital flows. [citation: Market analysis briefing, October 27]