The forecast for demand among Russians looking for secondary housing points to a rise starting later this year, with a noticeable uptick expected from September through the end of 2024. An economist with a strong background in macroeconomic analysis and public administration explained that the dip seen earlier in the year did not erase the underlying interest in second flats. This assessment reflects a cautious rebound as economic conditions adjust and buyers reassess the market in the wake of shifting financial landscapes. The projection also notes that market participants expect more completed units to come onto the market as confidence gradually returns and sellers adjust their expectations in the face of evolving demand dynamics.
According to the economist, the pace of new buyers entering the market is poised to accelerate by the end of the year, with a substantial rise in the pool of potential purchasers alongside a modest increase in the number of available properties. In practical terms, this means a wider selection for buyers and a broader base of capital supporting transactions, even as price discipline remains a feature of the market. The analyst highlighted that actual transaction prices are anticipated to run somewhat below the stated asking prices, a cushion that could facilitate quicker deals and offer relief to buyers navigating financing challenges.
The demand cycle for second homes is characterized by fluctuations tied to broader economic activity. The analysis suggests a recovery phase beginning in the middle of the year, followed by a temporary plateau as business activity slows, and then a renewed rise as the year progresses toward its end. This pattern indicates that price expectations may adjust downward relative to initial asking prices, but the overall trajectory remains upward as buyers re-enter the market and lenders recalibrate credit terms in response to changing risk assessments.
A detailed quarterly snapshot from recent market research indicates a drop in demand for second homes during the first part of the year, with the most pronounced declines observed in several large urban and industrial centers. At the same time, the inventory of available apartments contracted, even as prices continued to trend upward. The combined effect of tighter supply and evolving demand underscores a complex January-to-March period where market signals pointed to sellers and buyers reassessing their positions in light of broader monetary and fiscal conditions. These dynamics help explain why prospective buyers may experience a temporary delay before re-entering the market with renewed confidence and financing options could become more favorable as lending institutions adapt their criteria.
Earlier projections noted an expected increase in mortgage rejections during a near-term window, suggesting potential constraints for borrowers. The likelihood of higher rejection rates reflects the cautious stance of lenders as they weigh repayment risk amid economic uncertainty. Yet, the longer-term outlook remains one of gradual normalization, with banks reassessing risk, buyers improving their credit profiles, and a gradual easing of credit conditions as markets stabilize. This confluence of factors helps explain the anticipated shift in demand trends, as some buyers adopt a wait-and-see approach while others move decisively to secure second homes ahead of evolving price and financing dynamics.