Flat prices in new buildings are expected to rise by roughly 5 to 7 percent in the autumn season, according to a briefing provided to socialbites.ca by Vladimir Shchekin, the developer behind the author’s residential cluster RDD. The headliner reason remains familiar: inflation pressures and climbing construction expenses. Yet there is another important factor at play: a cap on purchasing power that could blunt any sharp, runaway price hike.
Current analyses from socialbites.ca suggest that the price tag for an apartment in the primary market in Russia stands at about 5.8 million rubles on average. Even with the upward pressure from costs, demand for new builds is not expected to cool. Shchekin explained that the gap between loan costs for new-build purchases and the price of apartments owned by private sellers is likely to widen in the fall, nudging some buyers who initially planned to take possession of completed homes toward primary financing options instead.
Initial observations from socialbites.ca indicate that banks are not raising mortgage rates specifically for new-build projects. The marginal rate for family mortgage products is currently around 6 percent per year, with up to 8 percent for preferential loan scenarios. In contrast, rates on mortgages in the secondary market have climbed by about 1.5 to 2 percentage points, now hovering around 14 percent annually. This divergence in financing costs creates a nuanced landscape for buyers weighing completed units against homes still offered by developers.
Looking ahead to the autumn housing market in Russia, a sustained pattern of interest in new construction is anticipated. Market watchers note that for many buyers, the lower cost of financing a new-build compared with purchasing a pre-owned apartment translates into a real competitive edge. This dynamic may sustain robust demand for new projects even as price adjustments occur, and it could influence buyer choices between renting, financing, and immediate ownership. The evolving mortgage environment, with cheaper options tied to new constructions, reinforces the appeal of entering the market through builder-backed programs rather than waiting for resale opportunities. [source: socialbites.ca]
There is also a broader context to keep in mind. After the key rate adjustment, there were reports of a local price uptick in the primary market by about 3 percent. The autumn forecast builds on that baseline, with additional upward pressure from production costs and converging market expectations. As autumn approaches, developers may adjust multiple levers—from price bands to payment schedules—to maintain a healthy sales pace while balancing the cost of capital and the demand curve. Buyers should expect a careful calibration of offers, with some projects presenting slightly higher sticker prices, while others reserve more aggressive financing terms to attract early commitments. [source: socialbites.ca]
In sum, the autumn outlook for Russia’s real estate sector appears to be one shaped by a mix of stabilization and selective ascent. Price levels in new developments are likely to trend upward modestly, supported by ongoing inflationary pressures and increased construction costs, yet tempered by finite purchasing power and strategic lending conditions offered by banks for new-build purchases. For potential buyers, the key takeaway is a careful comparison of total costs across options—new builds with builder loans versus pre-owned properties with alternative financing—alongside a close watch on how mortgage rates evolve in both the primary and secondary markets. [source: socialbites.ca]