A protective export tax on petroleum products could trigger a fuel shortage inside Russia, according to Alexander Dyukov, head of Gazprom Neft, speaking at the Industry and Energy Forum in Tyumen. He warned that while the measure might briefly create a surplus and push prices down, it would later curb oil refining throughput and lead to shortages of gasoline and diesel for domestic users. A sharp rise in export duties would, in his view, erode refinery efficiency across the Russian Federation and drive down the volume of finished fuels available locally.
The Ministry of Energy has not endorsed Gazprom Neft’s position, emphasizing that risk assessment and policy design should balance domestic fuel security with potential benefits of export controls. Reports indicate the government was weighing an export tax of about 250 dollars per tonne on all fuel types, though current rates are significantly lower. The discussion has fed into a broader debate about how to curb the flow of so-called gray fuel abroad while maintaining adequate supply at home. [Citation: Gazprom Neft leadership statements and government briefings from Tyumen Forum and subsequent ministerial remarks.]
Speculation about higher taxes has already had a chilling effect on wholesale fuel markets in Russia. The St. Petersburg Stock Exchange recorded a pullback in prices following early signals from officials about possible policy changes. AI-92 gasoline slipped to 65,651 RUB per liter, down 3.98 percent, while AI-95 eased to 69,272 RUB per liter, a decline of 5.06 percent. Diesel fuel fell by about 2.12 percent to 73,447 RUB per liter. These movements reflect traders adjusting to potential shifts in export policy and domestic price controls. [Citation: Market data from the St. Petersburg Exchange and official policy discussions as reported by industry analysts.]
In early September the Ministry of Energy reiterated plans to monitor and regulate fuel prices within the Russian Federation, signaling ongoing state involvement in balancing domestic affordability with energy export considerations. The discussions come alongside assurances from industry players that supplies to farmers would be maintained, underscoring the government’s objective of safeguarding essential domestic needs even as export controls are debated. [Citation: Ministry statements and sector-wide briefings on domestic fuel allocations.]
Analysts note that any export tax policy would have a cascading effect beyond immediate price shifts. Domestic refiners could adjust run rates in response to tariffs, while logistics and wholesale markets might experience volatility as buyers discount futures and hedge against policy uncertainty. The evolving stance of the government suggests a deliberate attempt to temper cross-border fuel leakage while preserving stable, affordable fuel for households and critical agricultural sectors. Observers also point to potential long term implications for Russia’s refining capacity utilization, investment in upgrading refineries, and the broader energy export strategy. [Citation: Market and policy analyses from energy research groups and industry observers.]