In July, Russian seaborne exports of petroleum products to Asia via the Cape of Good Hope surged to about 1.1 million tonnes, nearly doubling from the previous month and setting a new record, according to Reuters with data from LSEG. This uptick reflects ongoing shifts in trade routes as suppliers seek alternative pathways to Asia amidst evolving geopolitical risks and logistical considerations. The increase underscores how the Cape route has grown in strategic importance for Russia as it diversifies its energy shipments beyond traditional channels.
Within this volume, naphtha comprised the lion’s share, totaling roughly 0.83 million tonnes. The routing also included fuel oil sourced from Russia’s Baltic ports, including Ust-Luga and Vysotsk, as well as low-sulfur diesel from Primorsk. These cargoes illustrate a diversified slate of refinery products moving eastward, supported by established port infrastructure and tanker availability that enable steady, if cautious, expansion of expedition schedules to Asian markets.
The broader shift toward Africa as a corridor for Russian oil product shipments has emerged as a response to heightened risk exposure in the Red Sea. Reports indicate that attacks attributed to Yemeni Houthis on several vessels carrying Russian products during the preceding year have prompted shippers to re-evaluate routes and risk premiums. One notable incident involved the Lion of Chios, a Liberian-flagged vessel that loaded about 90,000 tonnes of fuel into the Black Sea port of Tuapse prior to July, highlighting the vulnerability of maritime routes in the region and the corresponding sensitivity of insurers and operators to geopolitical developments.
Despite these tensions, a majority of shipments still favor the more direct and time-efficient route through the Suez Canal when routing to Asian destinations. Industry observers note that despite growing concerns in the Red Sea, assurances from Houthis have aimed to preserve safe passage for commercial vessels traveling toward China and Russia, underscoring the persistent demand for stable supply chains and the resilience of established maritime corridors. The balance between risk and efficiency continues to shape carrier choices, with many operators prioritizing reliability and predictable transit times for complex, high-value payloads.
Industry analysis has pointed to the increasing significance of northern passage options as a strategic accessory to the mainline Suez route. Tensions in traditional bottlenecks have pushed analysts to reassess the viability of alternative routes, particularly for heavy trades and time-sensitive shipments. In this context, traffic through northern corridors could gain traction as a supplementary option for certain seasonal or demand-driven scenarios, while the overall flow of Russian petroleum products remains closely aligned with global energy demand and the evolving political landscape across key maritime chokepoints.