Europe is pursuing a strategy to lessen its reliance on gas imports from Russia, aiming to complete the transition by the end of the current decade. The European Commission outlines a plan to shrink Russian gas deliveries to the EU to a fraction of what was imported in 2021, signaling a significant shift in energy sourcing and policy. The bloc expects a drop in imports to around 40-45 billion cubic meters this year, a stark contrast to the 155 billion cubic meters brought in during 2021. This planned reduction relies on a mix of accelerated renewable energy deployment, increased imports from alternative suppliers, and structural changes in the European energy market. The shift is framed as part of a broader resilience strategy intended to secure energy supply and stabilize prices amid a changing global energy landscape.
The Commission emphasizes that the short-term decline in Russian gas will be offset by a combination of stronger solar generation, expanded LNG import capacity, and enhanced deliveries from Norway and the United States. While these sources are expected to fill the gap, the plan also highlights that member states have not uniformly accelerated renewable energy projects to meet ambitious long-term targets. EU officials point to the 42.5% renewables share goal for 2030 and stress the need for more robust implementation across countries to achieve it. The emphasis is on creating a diversified, secure energy mix that reduces exposure to single-source risks and price volatility while supporting regional energy independence.
At the start of September, European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic remarked that completely severing ties with Russian gas would be extremely challenging in practice. The International Energy Agency has projected that European energy prices may stay elevated even when storage levels are optimized, underscoring persistent market tightness and geopolitical uncertainty. The IEA further anticipates that Russia could lose roughly half of its traditional share of the global gas market as diversified supply chains and new routes reduce dependence on any single supplier. This shift is viewed as part of a broader global realignment in energy trade and infrastructure, driven by policy choices, investment in alternative production, and the evolving balance of supply and demand on the world stage.
Formerly, the IEA led discussions about the evolving role of natural gas in the energy mix and the potential transition away from what some described as a “golden age” of gas. That perspective has influenced how policymakers frame the gas transition, balancing short-term concerns about affordability and reliability with longer-term strategies for decarbonization and energy security. The current dialogues emphasize practical steps, including accelerating renewable energy projects, enhancing cross-border energy interconnections, and expanding the capacity to import and store gas from multiple sources. These elements are intended to create a more resilient European energy system while preserving consumer affordability and supporting climate goals.