European Commission plans to approve an emergency framework on 18 May in case Russian gas supplies are suddenly interrupted. The plan was reported by a major European newspaper on 8 May. El País.
Emergency
Brussels cautions that an energy crisis would affect nearly all EU partners. Countries with alternative sources, such as Spain, could be required to share gas with neighbors facing disruption, according to the report.
The publication notes that authorities intend to begin rationing with the industrial sector so that companies in less affected states do not gain an unfair advantage over those in harder-hit regions.
Consumption Rationing
Brussels is expected to rely on the security of supply regulation in force since 2017 to ensure adequate gas for households and basic social services across the bloc and to mitigate the impact of emergencies.
Under these rules, each affected state can set its own rationing guidelines. In addition, countries facing supply problems can call on a solidarity clause that would compel neighboring states to offer support.
It remains within the EC’s remit to declare a state of emergency affecting several member states or the entire Union. Preliminary estimates suggest that if Russian gas were completely halted, the measures laid out in the regulation would need to be applied by almost all EU partners.
“In some countries the disruption would directly impact them. In others, there would be a need to reduce industrial consumption to assist neighbors,” according to interlocutors cited by the newspaper.
Brussels is expected to oversee the implementation of the solidarity clause. When supply problems arise, initial measures would be voluntary and aimed at curbing industrial demand.
Replacing Russian Gas
The release notes indicate the EU has begun exploring alternative energy sources. In the short term, officials acknowledge that replacing Russian gas by 2022 would be challenging, though some studies suggest portions could be substituted over time. Estimates vary on the extent of replacement possible, including the possibility of offsetting two-thirds of the typical Russian gas intake.
Current data show that Russian deliveries to Europe account for a substantial share of consumption. Several Member States rely heavily on imports from Russia, with varying degrees of exposure by country.
Finland and Bulgaria are cited as being highly dependent on Russian supplies, while Germany also shows significant reliance. Other states – including Austria, Greece, Latvia, Slovakia, Hungary, Denmark, Poland, and the Czech Republic – report various levels of exposure to Russian gas.
Payments in Rubles
At the end of March, Moscow signaled a shift toward ruble payments for gas deliveries to what Russia terms “unfriendly” countries. The move has led to suspended fuel imports to Poland and Bulgaria, while Baltic states previously rejected Russian gas entirely.
Industry observers noted that some governments and business leaders viewed the move as an attempt to create pressure and to test the unity of Western responses. Several national ministers and officials remarked that G7 partners do not intend to pay rubles for Russian gas, and broader discussions continue within the EU about sanctions and energy policy.
As discussions on the sixth sanctions package proceed, Brussels signaled ongoing debate about potential measures including financial sanctions against additional Russian banks, restrictions on disinformation, and possible oil import curbs or an embargo at the EU level.
Consequences of Cutting Off Gas Supplies
Officials warn that Germany would face severe consequences beyond domestic comfort, with potential industrial disruption and substantial production losses. Some estimates place potential losses in the hundreds of billions of euros range over a multi-year period, highlighting the risk to key industries such as chemicals.
Experts emphasize that the risk is not primarily a heating issue for homes but a question of keeping vital industries afloat. Some leaders stress the need to avoid harming the broader economy and to prevent a cascading effect on employment and growth.
Other Western countries would also feel the impact of a sudden gas cut, given intertwined energy and industrial dependencies. Several officials in Europe stress the importance of a coordinated approach to maintain security of energy supply without triggering wider economic damage.
In discussions across the bloc, concerns are raised about the efficiency of alternative energy routes and the cost of restructuring energy supply chains. Analysts note the value of centralized procurement strategies to secure favorable terms and ensure price stability for member states during a crisis.
Central Supply
Last autumn, EU governments examined the potential for urgent joint gas purchases from Russia to secure the best possible price. Some observers compared the idea to centralized vaccine procurement that allowed Brussels to negotiate on behalf of all member states, achieving lower prices than anticipated.
Briefings indicate that gas remains one of the options under consideration by European officials. The EU’s top diplomat suggested that Europe might require more Russian gas than previously understood, urging that negotiations on gas purchases be conducted at the EU level on behalf of all member states rather than by each country individually.
End of the document note: various sources provide ongoing updates on the situation, reflecting a broad consensus on the need for preparedness and a unified European response to energy security challenges.