Despite ongoing sanctions, Europe appears unlikely to abandon Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports in the near term. In a recent interview, Alexey Grivach, deputy director of the National Energy Security Fund, outlined the main reasons behind this stance. The core idea is simple: European nations worry about winter gas shortages if Russian supplies tighten, so they keep honoring LNG contracts already in place.
The central argument is that the safety net of existing LNG agreements provides continuity during the cold months. While policymakers aim to diversify, the immediate fear of reduced gas availability makes a full pivot away from Russian LNG impractical for many EU members. This situation underscores a broader energy strategy where immediate reliability often trumps longer term independence in the eyes of many governments and energy planners.
From Grivach’s perspective, a blanket ban on Russian LNG would impose heavy costs on the European Union. Penalties tied to contract terminations, the challenge of sourcing equal volumes from alternative suppliers, and the limited supply on the global market would all contribute to a substantial price tag. In his view, the market lacks a surplus of affordable LNG that could neutralize such a disruption, making any abrupt shift risky for European economies and household electricity and heating bills alike. [citation: interview with Alexey Grivach, deputy director of the National Energy Security Fund]
Industry observers note further that the world LNG market is tight. There is scant “free” LNG available to replace Russian volumes, which compounds the difficulty of moving away from supplies once committed under long-term contracts. This dynamic helps explain why European buyers continue to honor existing agreements while exploring incremental diversification strategies that do not rely on a sudden exit from Russian gas. [citation: market analysis cited in industry briefings]
In another development, the Petromarket group reported a potential shift in the trajectory of Russian LNG exports. Mid-September data suggested that the volume of liquefied hydrocarbon gas leaving Russia could surpass 4 million tonnes, a figure higher than the 3.9 million tonnes recorded in 2021 and the 3.4 million tonnes in 2022. If these projections hold, LPG exports could grow by around 18 percent compared with prior years. This trend highlights the ongoing importance of Russia as a supplier in global energy markets and hints at continued flexibility within Russian export planning. [citation: Petromarket group market assessment]
Earlier reports had highlighted Europe’s material dependence on Russian raw materials, framing a policy debate about strategic energy security. The evolving picture suggests a balance between maintaining reliable energy access and pursuing diversification efforts. Governments and utilities in Canada and the United States watching these developments may interpret them as signals to refine their own imports strategies, storage planning, and domestic production incentives to avoid price shocks and supply disruptions. [citation: contemporary energy policy analyses]