Regional industry analysts forecast a steady rise in global LNG output through 2024, with a projection of about 420 million tonnes for the year, marking roughly a 3% increase from the previous year. This growth comes as Arctic LNG 2 proceeds toward fuller operation, which is expected to lift shipments by several million tonnes and help expand Russia’s slice of the world market beyond 9%.
Market observers expect LNG trade to maintain its upward trajectory in 2024. Total production and exports could be around 3% higher than in 2023, reaching close to the 420 million-tonne level. The leading exporting nations are likely to stay in place, though substantial gains in output are anticipated primarily in Russia and the United States.
The initial processing unit of NOVATEK’s Arctic LNG 2 project is slated to begin operations within the year, enabling a rise in LNG exports to about 38 million tonnes annually by year-end 2024. Industry think tanks project the United States will continue to fully utilize existing liquefaction capacity, lifting LNG exports by around 4–5 million tonnes per year to roughly 90 million tonnes. In the same outlook, Qatar and Australia are expected to keep their supply levels near last year’s marks, around 79–80 million tonnes.
Analysts from financial services firms suggest a wave of new LNG facilities will come online from mid-2024, with projects totaling around 50 billion cubic metres of annual capacity. The majority of this new capacity is forecast to originate in the United States as developers push to expand export capabilities and meet growing demand.
Additionally, new market entrants—such as Congo, Mexico, Senegal, and Mauritania—are anticipated to join the LNG landscape in 2024. These countries are projected to collectively contribute roughly 3 million tonnes in new liquefied gas supply next year, broadening the geographic footprint of LNG suppliers.
Looking ahead to 2025, analysts anticipate more pronounced shifts in the global LNG market. Production could rise by an additional 30 million tonnes, effectively doubling the growth observed in 2024. This outlook reflects ongoing project commissioning in the United States, increased output from the so‑called new players, the start of exports from Canada, and continued growth in Russia’s output. As production expands across multiple regions, the LNG market is expected to become more diversified and responsive to global demand patterns.
Historical price dynamics have influenced market behavior, with periods of lower crude prices often coinciding with shifts in LNG activity and investment, reinforcing the link between energy markets and broader macroeconomic trends. In turn, investors and industry participants are watching policy developments, currency movements, and project timelines closely as they navigate a rapidly changing landscape.