The International Energy Agency projects that gas prices in Europe will stay elevated through much of the coming years, with average prices near 450 dollars per 1000 cubic meters and possibly higher. This outlook has been reported by Vedomosti. The agency notes that global and European gas markets are gradually moving toward a balance between supply and demand, but a tighter supply situation in 2024 is expected to push prices up by roughly 10 percent to the 500–535 dollars per 1000 cubic meters range.
Looking ahead, the commissioning of new LNG facilities in 2025 and 2026 is anticipated to support a downward trend, potentially bringing prices to around 464 dollars per 1,000 cubic meters. This level remains well above the 2016–2020 average, reflecting structural changes in global LNG trade. On October 13, spot prices in the European Union briefly exceeded 600 dollars per 1,000 cubic meters, while storage capacity stood around 97 percent. The price dynamic continued to be influenced by potential disruptions to LNG export facilities in Australia and by weaker wind generation across parts of Europe.
The IEA also suggests that higher prices will exert downward pressure on European gas demand. After a 14 percent drop in 2022, it is projected that demand could fall by a further 7 percent in 2023, reaching around 489 billion cubic meters. Analysts concur that a price normalization is unlikely before 2026, given the ongoing expansion of global LNG production and the resulting supply response.
Recent weeks have seen European natural gas prices reach levels not seen since the early days of 2023, underscoring the volatility that continues to characterize regional energy markets. The broader context includes ongoing discussions of price ceilings and policy measures that seek to stabilize supplies for key European consumers while balancing the interests of producers and markets alike.
In summary, the energy landscape for Europe remains characterized by elevated price levels, evolving supply arrangements, and a gradual but uneven path toward market equilibrium. The interplay among LNG project ramp-ups, storage utilization, wind generation variability, and geopolitical considerations will shape price trajectories and demand patterns in the months and years ahead, with many observers watching closely how these factors unfold in North America and across global energy networks.